Today we review a forward looking article that predicts, on the basis of recent sales of electric vehicles and longer range because of battery technology improvements, that this may well be the last decade that we see, let alone buy an internal combustion engine vehicle. Several car manufacturers are already planning on major increased production of BEVs [battery electric vehicles] by 2020 and the market share of these vehicles has been increasing by 60% per year in recent years. Further, as battery efficiency continues fewer people will buy hybrid cars, preferring to jump to all electric with greater ranges. On the horizon this will have a major and positive impact on urban air quality.
Key Quotes:
“Tesla expects to be producing 500,000 battery electric vehicles (BEVs) per year by 2020.. Volvo expects 10% of their global sales in 2020 to be BEVs and much of the rest to be plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs)”
“Worldwide PEV[all plug-in EVs] market share has increased by over 60% each of the past 3 years and this is expected to continue.”
“Battery costs per kWh are falling about 35% each year and the electric range of all PEVs is increasing”
“Those who have ever driven electrically are lost for the internal combustion engine for all time.” “Bloomberg are predicting that there could be an oil crisis by 2023, compliments of increasing numbers of PEVs reducing gas consumption, leading to the bottom falling out of the oil markets”
“the average car lasts about 11.4 years, so it will take some time to replace all of them (and 15- to 20-year-old cars aren’t unusual).”
“The vacating of gas stations and other ICE[internal combustion engine] -specific services will be one more element, and a major one, in the reshaping of land and space use that will happen in our communities over the next few years.”
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