Health Impacts of Future Heat Waves as a result of Climate Change

Image via WikipediaProjecting Future Heat-related Mortality under Climate Change Scenarios: A Systematic Review (43 page pdf, Cunrui Huang, Adrian Gerard Barnett, Xiaoming Wang, Pavla Vaneckova, Gerard FitzGerald, Shilu Tong, |Environmental Health Perspectives, Aug. 4, 2011)

The focus of today’s review article is on the heat-related deaths likely under climate change scenarios that extend out 50 years. A literature search revealed that heat waves are the single largest cause of deaths of any severe weather and women particularly elderly women tend to suffer the most. Acclimatization to warmer temperatures is an important factor to avoid exaggerating the mortality impact. Air pollution will add to the impact from heat waves.

Key Quotes:

“heat waves are the biggest cause of weather-related fatalities in many cities, responsible for more deaths annually than any other form of extreme weather”

“People with cardiovascular or respiratory disease, diabetes, chronic mental disorders or other pre-existing medical conditions are at greater risk from heat exposure”

“The heat threshold is the temperature at which the harmful effect of heat begins to occur, and the heat slope measures the size of this effect”

“[in 44 USA cities] increases in heat-related mortality would range from 70% to over 100% in 2050, relative to the baseline 1964–1991 summer mortality”

“[in 3 Canadian cities] a significant increase in temperature related mortality in summer that was not offset by a significant but smaller estimated decrease in fall and winter mortality.

“In Lisbon, acclimatization could reduce heat-related deaths on average by 15% in the 2020s and 40% in the 2050s, relative to projections assuming no acclimatization”

“the effects of heat on mortality appear sometimes to be greater in women, especially elderly women”

“Air pollution is expected to increase in urban areas due to climate change, so the joint exposure of urban populations to high temperatures and air pollutants will increase in the future “

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