Urban Health Impacts of Climate Change and Air Pollution in Southern Ontario and Southern Quebec

Possible Impacts of Climate Change on Economic Losses and Health Care Costs due to Heat- and Air Pollution-related Premature Mortality in South-central Canada Using Downscaled Future Climate Scenarios (Abstract, Qian Li, Chad S. Cheng, Guilong Li, Heather Auld, Congress, Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society, Victoria, June 2011)

Also discussed here: Differential and Combined Impacts of Winter and Summer Weather and Air Pollution due to Global Warming on Human Mortality in South-central Canada (233 page pdf, Primary author: Chad Shouquan Cheng, Principal Investigator:Monica Campbell, Technical Report 6795-15-2001/4400011, Toronto Public Health, 2005)

The key health impact report in 2005 for four large Canadian cities near the Great Lakes is the focus of today’s review as the authors presented an update at the annual Congress of the Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society in Victoria, BC. They point out a number of significantly higher health risks, including the projection that premature deaths from high pollution episodes and climate change-induced heat waves could increase three-fold by 2080. At the same time cold-related deaths would decrease by 60-70% by 2080.



Key Quotes:

“developed an automated synoptic weather typing approach to determine the differential and combined impacts of extreme temperatures and air pollution on human mortality for four selected cities (Montreal, Ottawa, Toronto and Windsor) in South-central Canada. Economic losses and health care costs due to premature mortality under the current and future climates were then estimated”

“Two independent approaches were used to assess climate change impacts on heat- and air pollution-related premature mortality for two-time windows (2040-59, 2070-89).”

“economic losses and health care costs due to heat-related mortality could possibly increase by factors of 2 and 3 for the 2050s and 2080s, respectively”

“The corresponding figures due to air pollution-related mortality could likely increase about 20–30% and 30–45% for the two future time slices..largely driven by increases in ozone-associated premature mortality”

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