Also discussed here: The 2050 Pathways Calculator And here: MY 2050 Simulation(interactive graphic slide show)
And here: 2050 Calculator: one page guides(42 page pdf, David MacKay, Chief Scientific Advisor, DECC)
And here: Win-Win Transportation Emission Reduction Strategies(18 page pdf, Todd Litman, Victoria Transport Policy Institute, May 27, 2012)
Today we review a report from the UK and an energy scenario calculator. The tool, available in Excel spreadsheet format, as well as online, converts assumptions about future energy demand and supply into useful estimates of greenhouse gas emission reductions and graphs of energy demand and supply. The assumption choices are wide: the impact of adopting a small or large increase in wind, tidal or nuclear power generation, the impact of changes in housing heating and cooling, changes in transportation, aviation and shipping, etc. One additional scenario one may have looked for is the impact of pricing demand for energy in transportation such as congestion charges or dynamic pricing of parking rates, as recommend by Todd Litman in his publication noted above.
Key Quotes:
“The 2050 Pathways work presents a framework through which to consider some of the choices and trade-offs we will have to make over the next 40 years. It is system-wide, covering all parts of the economy and all greenhouse gas emissions released in the UK.”
“On the supply side you can choose how the UK produces its energy. For example, you can choose to build up to 40,000 offshore wind turbines or up to 50 3GW nuclear power stations, you can allocate up to 20% of the UK’s land to growing bio crops and you can reduce our use of landfill sites.”
“In 2007, UK nuclear power stations produced 164 TWh/y of high-grade heat that was converted to 63 TWh/y of electricity. 57 TWh/y of this was delivered to the grid, and 6 TWh/y was used on-site to run the power stations… Level 4 assumes a 13-fold increase in capacity over 2010 levels to 146 GW by 2050, roughly equivalent to 50 3-GW power stations. These stations produce just over 1000 TWh/y of electrical output, which is 40% of the total output of all the nuclear power stations operating in the world in 2009”
“In 2007, commercial premises used 75 TWh/y of energy for heating, 14 TWh/y for hot water, and 27 TWh/y for cooling… Level 4 assumes that in 2050, total heating and cooling demand is lower than in 2007. Heating demand falls to 59 TWh/y, hot water demand grows to 15 TWh/y, and cooling demand falls to 14 TWh/y. This means each building is demanding 40% less heat, 30% less hot water and 50% less air-conditioning in 2050.”
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