Also discussed here: Air Pollution Worsened by Climate Change Set to Be More Potent Killer in the 21st Century(Science Daily, Sep. 4, 2013)
Today we review global climate modeling research that estimated the changes in mortality over the next 100 years, resulting from air pollution with or without climate change included. Results indicate a 4% increase in deaths or up to 100,000 deaths overall, augmented by the reduced amount of low stratus cloud in a dustier atmosphere which normally scours out the particles during precipitation.
Key Quotes:
“climate change is expected to induce changes in air pollution, exposure to which could increase annual premature deaths by more than 100,000 adults worldwide..[need] stronger emission controls to avoid worsening air pollution and the associated exacerbation of health problems, especially in more populated regions of the world”
“We use a global coupled chemistry-climate model to simulate current and future climate and the effect of changing climate on air quality” “CCM [coupled chemistry-climate models] studies suggest that PM2.5 and aerosol concentrations may increase in a warmer climate because stratiform precipitation (a dominant driver for wet scavenging in the model) decreases when and where soluble pollutants are most abundant”
“we find about a 4 % (difference less than 0.1%) increase [i.e. 93,000 to 100,000 premature deaths/yr) in global premature mortalities due to changes in PM2.5 resulting from 21st century climate change.”
“In North America, Europe, South and East Asia, 21st century climate change induced changes in both PM2.5 and O3 surface concentrations are projected to increase premature mortality under the scenario of a constant population, baseline mortality rate and emissions of short-lived air pollutants. Climate change generates an air quality “climate penalty” by increasing surface concentrations of air pollutants and associated human health risks.”
“21st century climate change increases global all-cause premature mortalities associated with PM2.5 by approximately 100,000 deaths and respiratory disease mortality associated with O3 by 6,300 deaths annually.”
“Reducing emissions of black carbon and methane would be particularly effective as mitigation of these pollutants can slow the rate of climate change while reducing concentrations of PM2.5 and O3 and their associated health risks”
Related articles
No comments:
Post a Comment