And here: Don’t kill the shale-gas boom(Robert J. Samuelson, Washington Post. Dec. 23, 2012)
Shell’s scenarios over the last 40 years have produced insightful analyses of possible options that have led to a number of wise decisions in both the political and economic areas. Today we review their look at energy scenarios where the future is determined either by short range reactive thinking by governments “Scramble” (which seems to be the order of the day) or by a more disciplined long term planning approach “Blueprint”. The projections from each scenario out to 2050 produce widely different results as might be expected with implications for climate change and the economy, as well as the need to keep a special eye out for the major triggers or uncertainties among which are the future of shale gas (a Scramble approach) and the future of a carbon tax which also takes the form of road pricing (a Blueprint approach). The last of the noted links above show the political-natural gas aspect.
Key Quotes:
“just using one prediction of the future is very unreliable, and actually very risky, for business planning,"
“Shell currently projects a number of scenarios that could take place between now and 2050 under what it calls its "Scramble" and "Blueprint" approaches”
“The Scramble model sees governments and businesses rush to guarantee energy security without too much regard for sustainable and environmental solutions” “Scramble reflects a focus on national energy security. Immediate pressures drive decision-makers, especially the need to secure energy supply in the near future for themselves and their allies. National government attention naturally falls on the supply-side levers readily to hand, including the negotiation of bilateral agreements and incentives for local resource development. Growth in coal and biofuels becomes particularly significant.”
“The Blueprint model, in which difficult decisions are taken sooner rather than later”
“Blueprints describes the dynamics behind new coalitions of interests. … build on a combination of supply concerns, environmental interests, and associated entrepreneurial opportunities… broader fears about life style and economic prospects forge new alliances that promote action in both developed and developing nations… emergence of a critical mass of parallel responses to supply, demand, and climate stresses, and hence the relative promptness of some of those responses.”
“the shale gas revolution, and the question about whether that happens at a large scale outside North America. That's a big uncertainty…There's talk of the reindustrialization of America in that vein because of the cheap shale gas. "
“The key enabler of these energy system blueprints is the introduction of a CO2 pricing mechanism using a carbon emissions trading scheme that begins in the EU and is progressively adopted by other countries, including the U.S. and, later, China.”
Related articles
No comments:
Post a Comment