Pollution Free Cities: World Bank Report on 4 Degree Warming of the World’s Climate

Wednesday, December 12, 2012

World Bank Report on 4 Degree Warming of the World’s Climate

Turn Down the Heat: Why a 4°C Warmer World Must Be Avoided(106 page pdf, A Report for the World Bank by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Climate Analytics, November 2012)

Also discussed here

(1.2 min You-Tube, Dr. Jim Yong Kim, President, World Bank Group)

And here: Stand Still for the Apocalypse(Chris Hedges,TruthDig, Nov. 26, 2012)

Today we review a recent report from the World Bank, assessing the impacts of unrestrained greenhouse gas emissions leading to a 4 degree warmer planet. The impacts are many but tend to occur more often among developing countries near the equator rather than in mid-latitude developed countries who have been (and are) responsible for most of the emissions over the last century and these have accelerated in the last decade or two. The World Bank with a direct interest in promoting the economies of the developing world urges world leaders to begin to take serious measures to reduce emissions and as far as possible these impacts, even though the tipping point for an unstable climate was reached at 350 ppm (now close to 390 ppm).

Key Quotes: “This report spells out what the world would be like if it warmed by 4 degrees Celsius, which is what scientists are nearly unanimously predicting by the end of the century, without serious policy changes…. Even with the current mitigation commitments and pledges fully implemented, there is roughly a 20 percent likelihood of exceeding 4°C by 2100.” “the distribution of impacts is likely to be inherently unequal and tilted against many of the world’s poorest regions, which have the least economic, institutional, scientific, and technical capacity to cope and adapt:

Sea-level rise is likely to be 15 to 20 percent larger in the tropics than the global mean.
Increases in tropical cyclone intensity are likely to be felt disproportionately in low-latitude regions.
Increasing aridity and drought are likely to increase substantially in many developing country regions located in tropical and subtropical areas”

“Observations indicate a tenfold increase in the surface area of the planet experiencing extreme heat since the 1950s” “Of the impacts projected for 31 developing countries, only 10 cities account for two-thirds of the total exposure to extreme floods. Highly vulnerable cities are to be found in Mozambique, Madagascar, Mexico, Venezuela, India, Bangladesh, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Vietnam” “a global mean temperature increase of 4°C approaches the difference between temperatures today and those of the last ice age, when much of central Europe and the northern United States were covered with kilometers of ice and global mean temperatures were about 4.5°C to 7°C lower….And this magnitude of climate change—human induced—is occurring over a century, not millennia.” “We have already passed the tipping point of 350 ppm; above that level, life as we have known it cannot be sustained. The CO₂ concentration is higher now than at any time in the last 15 million years” “By the time the concentration reaches around 550 ppm (corresponding to a warming of about 2.4°C in the 2060s), it is likely that coral reefs in many areas would start to dissolve,” “A 4°C world is likely to be one in which communities, cities and countries would experience severe disruptions, damage, and dislocation, with many of these risks spread unequally. It is likely that the poor will suffer most and the global community could become more fractured, and unequal than today. The projected 4°C warming simply must not be allowed to occur—the heat must be turned down.”