How Do Electric Fields under High Voltage Power Lines Compare to Those Near Highways?

Comparison of charged nanoparticle concentrations near busy roads and overhead high-voltage power lines (Abstract, E.R. Jayaratne, X. Ling, L. Morawska, May 28, 2015)

Also discussed here: Roadside air can be more charged than under a high-voltage power line (Science Daily, May 28, 2015)

Today we review research from Brisbane, Australia, comparing the number of charged particles emitted by vehicles near highways to what is found under power lines. Results indicate more than twice as many charged vehicles near roads. The charges alone do not present a health hazard but the fact that the particulates are charged means that they adhere more closely to the lungs when they are breathed in – and this as earlier research has shown presents a number of health impacts which would be increased by the electrical charging

   

Key Quotes:

 “ a large number of charged particles in urban environments come from motor vehicle emissions ….within 10 metres of a freeway, charged particles were up to 15 times more concentrated than beneath high-voltage power lines."

 “the concentration of charged nanoparticles found near two freeways carrying around 120 vehicles per minute exceeded the corresponding maximum concentrations under two corona-emitting overhead power lines by as much as a factor of 5”

“most pronounced when a significant fraction of traffic consisted of heavy-duty diesel vehicles which typically have high particle and charge emission rates.”

“while there was no evidence that breathing in air ions was a health risk, approximately one-half of the fine particles that we inhale during normal breathing are deposited in our lungs. Therefore, it is not surprising that several studies have demonstrated a link between particulate pollution from exhaust fumes and adverse health effects.”

 "We do not believe that ions are dangerous -- the danger comes from the pollutants. The ions merely assist the particles to stick to the lungs. If there are no dangerous particles in the air to attach to the ions, there is no risk of ill health."

Related articles

• Air Monitors launches nanoparticle detector
• Nanoparticles and UV Light Clean Up Environmental Pollutants
• Health Impacts of Nanoparticles (NPs)
• How Much Does Idling at Red Lights Contribute to Urban Air Pollution?

What Can Be Done to Reduce Health Impacts from Roadside Vehicle Emissions?

Traffic-related air pollution and health in Canada(Michael Brauer, Conor Reynolds, and Perry Hystad, Commentary, Canadian Medical Association Journal, Oct. 21, 2013)

Also quoted here: Traffic-Related Air Pollution Substantial Public Health Concern(Science News, Oct. 21, 2013)

And here: Traffic-related air pollution a growing concern in Canada(Karen Graham, Digital Journal, Oct 21, 2013)

Today we review research into the public health risk posed to Canadians (and citizens of other countries) from traffic –related air pollution, especially to the third of its population (10M) that lives within the length of a football field (100 m) of major roads with heavy traffic. Solutions include, first and foremost, reducing vehicle emissions by reducing traffic congestion, keeping high emission vehicles, such as trucks and buses, away from schools, day-cares and retirement homes though better zoning to reduce sprawl, as defined in official municipal plans, and encouraging alternate commuting modes with urban congestion charge zones  among other options.

   

Key Quotes:

“approximately 21,000 people die prematurely from air pollution each year in Canada, about 9-fold more than the number killed in traffic accidents.”

“About 10 million people -- 32% of the population of Canada -- live within 500 m of highways or 100 m from major urban roads, areas in which they are exposed to elevated levels of traffic-related air pollution”

"This high prevalence of exposure, in addition to evidence of associated health problems, suggests that traffic-related air pollution is a substantial public health concern in Canada,"

“options to help mitigate the effects of traffic-related air pollution:

• Reducing vehicle emissions: introducing programs to remove or retrofit high-emission vehicles; reducing traffic congestion; expanding infrastructure for electric cars
• Modifying current infrastructure: limiting heavy truck traffic to specific routes; separating active commuting zones (e.g. cycle and walking routes) from busy roads
• Better land-use planning and traffic management: locating buildings such as schools, daycares and retirement homes at least 150 m away from busy streets
• Encouraging behavioural change: creating policies to reduce traffic congestion in specific areas and encouraging alternative commuting behaviours.”

“"congestion charge zone" in London, UK…resulted in an estimated gain of 183 years of life per 100,000 residents within the zone over a 10-year period."

Related articles

• Traffic-related air pollution a substantial public health concern
• How Can the Law be used to Curb Traffic on Roads that Cause Congestion and Air Pollution?
• Tightening Vehicle and Fuels Standards to Benefit Global Health and Climate
• Air pollution nine-times deadlier than car crashes, UBC study finds
• Congestion charge to counter pollution in Shanghai possible
• Vehicle Exhaust Emissions
• Air pollution death rate up in half of boroughs

How Does Urban Sprawl Impact the Environment?

English: Urban Sprawl in London, Ontario (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

The Environmental Impacts of Sprawl: Emergent Themes from the Past Decade of Planning Research(26 page pdf, Bev Wilson and Arnab Chakraborty, Sustainability, Aug. 5, 2013)

Today we review a literature review of articles that examine the meaning of urban sprawl globally, its impacts on air, water, land and energy, how it relates to justice and equity and how different countries either encourage or discourage its growth. The authors point out that, although sprawl has no widely accepted definition, improvement comes when it is viewed within the context of urban sustainability rather than narrowly as a geographic metric.

Key Quotes:

“At its core, urban sprawl is a complex and multifaceted phenomenon with no universally accepted definition.. In the Western context the term typically evokes images of low density, automobile dependent, and largely monotonous residential development along the periphery of an urban area”

“compact development can significantly reduce pollutant emissions at the regional scale, but only over the long-term and when complemented with growth controls, disincentives for vehicle use, and technological emissions controls.”

“The consumption of fossil fuels is the largest contributor to CO2 emissions followed by land use change ..and these are the primary connections between urban sprawl and climate change observable in the planning literature.”

“Within the buildings sector, the connection between urban sprawl and climate change hinges on energy losses through transmission lines (i.e., longer distances spanned), larger heated areas on average, and increased surface temperatures by virtue of the heat island effect in areas with more sprawl”

“Conceptualising urban sprawl as a pattern of development unfolding over time that is incompatible with commonly accepted characteristics of sustainable development can potentially alleviate many of the difficulties that have plagued sprawl research”

“Economic and social dimensions of sustainable development are as important as environmental considerations and the true challenge for those who inhabit, manage, and study urban area is to somehow balance these three aspects.”

Related articles

• Metropolis 0.0: Old-School Daguerrotypes Capture Urban Sprawl of the 1800s
• Urban Sprawl
• Societal Costs of Sprawl: A New Look
• Once There Were Greenfields; How Urban Sprawl is Undermining America's Environment, Economy, and Social Fabric downloads
• Sprawl Does Not Reduce Economic Mobility
• Calgary ninth on international prosperity report
• Urban Sprawl : a problem need to be sloved

How Much Traffic-Related Air Pollution Comes from Vehicle Exhaust?

Source apportionment of traffic emissions of particulate matter using tunnel measurements (Abstract, Samantha Lawrence, Ranjeet Sokhi^, Khaiwal Ravindra^, Hongjun Mao^, Hunter Douglas Prain, Ian D. Bull^, Atmospheric Environment, Apr. 10, 2013)  

Also discussed here: Estimation of the contribution of road traffic emissions to particulate matter concentrations from field measurements: A review(abstract, Pallavi Pant, Roy M. Harrison, Atmospheric Environment, Oct. 2013)
 

And here: ‘Only a third’ of traffic pollution caused by exhaust(Air Quality news, Jun. 5, 2013)

Today we review research that carefully estimated what portion of outdoor air pollution comes from vehicle tail pipes and other sources. The answer is that nearly half of the pollution comes from a variety of sources other than exhaust, including brake wear, road wear and dust and particles thrown into the air by passing vehicles. This in turn points the need for corrective action to these secondary sources, by developing less polluting tires and constructing roads better and as well as standards to apply to them, as well as to vehicle emissions.

Key Quotes:

 “it can be concluded that while traffic emissions continue to contribute substantially to primary PM emissions in urban areas, quantitative knowledge of the contribution, especially of non-exhaust emissions to PM concentrations remain inadequate.”

 “the emission sources for 82% of the total PM₁₀ mass inside the tunnel. Identified sources include resuspension (27%), diesel exhaust emissions (21%), petrol exhaust emissions (12%), brake wear emissions (11%) and road surface wear (11%).”

“nearly half of the air pollution from road traffic is down to non-exhaust sources such as brake-wear, road surface-wear, and particles launched into the air from the road by passing vehicles.”

 “In terms of mass, non-exhaust sources can be more important than exhaust fumes, but legislative control has focussed on exhaust emissions."

“As exhaust regulations become stricter, non-exhaust sources become proportionately more important. Continuing to control exhaust emissions alone may not be enough to achieve legal air-quality standards.”

 “Where possible, new technologies and other pollution reduction options should be investigated. These might include, for example, new materials for tyres and brakes and different methods for constructing road surfaces.”

Related articles

• Air pollution linked to higher risk of lung cancer and heart failure
• Air Pollution Linked to Higher Risk of Heart Failure - Bloomberg
• Childhood Asthma And Autism Linked To Air Pollution: Children And Fetuses Among The Most Vulnerable

Health Risks for Highway Workers

Exposure of Highway Maintenance Workers to Fine Particulate Matter and Noise ( Abstract, Reto Meier, Wayne E. Cascio, Brigitta Danuserand Michael Riediker^, Annals of Occupational Hygiene, Mar. 15, 2013)<

Also discussed here: Strimmers are worse than motorway traffic (Medical XPress, May 30, 32013)

Today we review an article that looks at the health risks of highway workers exposed to both vehicle emissions from proximity of traffic and the noise and emissions of particles from their equipment- such as from chain saws and jack hammers. Results indicate levels eight times higher than those faced by the average population. More generally, one could suppose that residences close to ongoing highway maintenance in a city environment would also be impacted.

 

Freeway to the Lenny Zakim Bridge (Photo credit: OhDuranDuran)[/caption]  
 
Key Quotes:

 “They accompanied 18 maintenance workers on 50 working days during tasks such as clearing snow, mending crash barriers, cleaning drains, cutting wood or mowing grass on the motorway central reservation.[in Lausanne, Switzerland]”

“compared to the average population, maintenance workers are exposed to between three and eight times higher particulate levels. In addition, noise levels often exceed the critical level of 85 decibels”

“The highest exposure to fine and ultrafine particles was measured during grass mowing and lumbering when motorized brush cutters and chain saws were used.”

“the use of strimmers or chainsaws and the traffic during maintenance work in tunnels also give rise to noise levels of 90 decibels or more.. Highest noise levels, caused by pneumatic hammers, were measured during paving and guardrail repair.”

 “The quickest way to reduce particulate levels, therefore, is to improve the engines in these machines. This is primarily a challenge for the manufacturers”

Related articles

• Summer sounds can bring hearing loss
• Strimmers are worse than motorway traffic
• Study finds air pollution and noise both increase risk of heart problems
• Noise and Hearing Protection Fact Sheet

Measuring Health Rate Variability near Traffic

English: Oxidative stress process Italiano: Processo dello stress ossidativo (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

PM2.5, oxidant defence and cardiorespiratory health: a review(15 page pdf, Scott A Weichenthal,Krystal Godri-Pollitt, Paul J Villeneuve, Environmental Health, May 4, 2013) 

Today we review research aimed at seeing if there is a significant link between oxidative stress and the cardiovascular health impacts, arising from exposure to high levels of PM2.5- and if so, the value of oxidative burden as a metric. Results indicate there is an inverse relationship between heart rate variability (HRV) and PM2.5 which may be useful when assessing health threats from proximity to vehicle emissions in heavy traffic.  

Key Quotes: 

“Of the plausible biological mechanisms explaining PM2.5 health effects, oxidative stress is often cited as playing an important role in both respiratory and cardiovascular outcomes”

 “Here we review epidemiological evidence related to the role of oxidative stress (and oxidant defence) in PM-induced cardiorespiratory morbidity.” 

“stronger inverse associations were observed between PM2.5 and HRV among subjects with genetic polymorphisms that impaired oxidant defence;” 

“a polymorphism in the enzyme needed to produce reduced glutathione (important for oxidant defence) was found to modify the impact of PM2.5 exposure on lung function growth among children,” 

 “Conceptually, PM oxidative burden is an appealing exposure metric for epidemiological analysis as it aims to capture the ability of PM to modify a biological process known to contribute to adverse cardiorespiratory health effects…. little evidence is available to gauge the potential role of this metric in ambient air quality management.” 

“oxidative potential measures from this assay have been shown to vary with proximity to important sources of air pollution such as traffic..and further evaluation of an expanded set of health outcomes with both acute and chronic exposure intervals are required before the validity of this measure can be fairly assessed.”

Related articles

• Dirty air link to insulin resistance
• Air pollution may harden arteries
• Mitochondrial Genetic Background Modifies the Relationship between Traffic-Related Air Pollution Exposure and Systemic Biomarkers of Inflammation
• Traffic air pollution turns good cholesterol bad

Reducing Road Deaths and Injuries in London England

Towards a Road Safety Action Plan for London: 2020 (115 page pdf, Mayor of London, Transport for London, July 2012)

Also discussed here: Towards a new Road Safety Action Plan for London: 2020 (Transport for London, July 2012)

And here: London’s road safety action plan(Jenny Jones, MayorWatch, Sep. 3, 2012)

Today we look at a consultation report from London to improve road safety. Among the 70 recommendations are some aimed at pedestrians and cyclists and youth between 18 and 23, both of which are showing increased or peak casualties from road accidents. The 10 key policy proposals call for a 40% drop in road casualties by 2020 though better communications, examining best case examples from other cities and making prime use of technology.
 
Key Quotes:

 “the number of people killed or seriously injured in road traffic collisions in the Capital had fallen by 57 per cent, the number of reported slight injuries had fallen by 33 per cent, and the number of children killed or seriously injured had fallen by 73 per cent compared to the 1994-8 baseline.. Casualty reduction targets for cyclists and powered two-wheeler users, however, were not met.”

“In 2011, there were 223 fewer car occupants killed or seriously injured, but 171 more pedestrians and cyclists.”

 “In 2011, there were 571 cycling KSIs, but only 20 of these involved an HGV… The focus on cycling fatalities is leading to a focus on lorries and that could mean the Mayor ignores the expensive engineering solutions which are the key to dealing with the bulk of the KSIs”

 “this Action Plan proposes to establish a new target to reduce the number of people killed or seriously injured in London by 40 per cent by 2020”

Key policy proposals:

*"Invest in London's roads to make them safer.. installation of 20mph zones and speed limits on borough roads where appropriate,

*Commit to and improve London's safety camera network

*Actively lobby for improvements in vehicle design and greater innovation to deliver better safety

 *Lobby Government for changes to national regulations to allow the trial of innovative new approaches .. make optimum use of new engineering and traffic management approaches to manage speeds

*Run an ongoing programme of communications campaigns .. ‘Don’t let your friendship die on the road’

*Conduct an ongoing research programme to enable the right policies to be developed..

*Focus areas will include the safety of pedestrians, cyclists and powered two-wheeler user

*Ensure good quality, detailed data is provided to the public and stakeholders on a regular basis

*Actively promote understanding of developments and knowledge in road safety with partner organisations

*Work more closely with partner organisations such as the police, health sector, academia, NGOs, LAS, and insurance companies

*Learn more from others.. inviting international experts and leading practitioners to road safety seminars in London."

Diesel Trucks, Oil-Heated Homes and Childhood Asthma

 Domestic airborne black carbon and exhaled nitric oxide in children in NYC (Abstract, Alexandra G Cornell, Steven N Chillrud, Robert B Mellins, Luis M Acosta, Rachel L Miller, James W Quinn, Beizhan Yan, Adnan Divjan, Omar E Olmedo, Sara Lopez-Pintado, Patrick L Kinney, Frederica P Perera, Judith S Jacobson, Inge F Goldstein, Andrew G Rundle, Matthew S Perzanowski, Journal of Exposure Science and Environmental Epidemiology, Feb. 29, 2012)

Also discussed here:
Air Pollution from Trucks and Low-Quality Heating Oil May Explain Childhood Asthma Hot Spots (Science News, Mar. 27, 2012)

Today’s review deals with the health of children in New York City who live near diesel truck traffic. Results show up to three times greater risk for asthma and the need for further reductions in emissions from buildings burning low grade heating oil and from diesel trucks whose routes take them near homes.


Key Quotes:

 “Neighborhood built-environment characteristics were assessed for the 500 m surrounding participants’ homes. Airborne BC concentrations in homes correlated with neighborhood asthma prevalence.. and neighborhood densities of truck routes ..and buildings burning residual oil”

“In New York City… asthma among school-age children ranges from a low of 3% to a high of 19% depending on the neighborhood, and even children growing up within walking distance of each other can have 2- to 3-fold differences in risk for asthma”

“levels of airborne black carbon, which mostly comes from incomplete combustion sources like diesel trucks and oil furnaces, were high in homes of children with asthma”

"Because of its history as a shipping and oil refining center, New York City burns more dirty oil for residential and commercial heating than any other city in the country,"

"Children in this study with higher black carbon in the air of their homes had higher exhaled nitric oxide, suggesting that they were at greater risk for asthma exacerbations”

Vehicle Emissions at Modern Roundabouts and Signalized Intersections

Quantitatively Determining the Emissions Reduction Benefits of the Replacement of a Signalized Intersection by a Roundabout (16 page pdf, Maxine Hesch, Academy of the Holy Names, New York State Dept of Transportation, March 2007)

Also discussed here: Impact of Modern Roundabouts on Vehicular Emissions (10 page pdf, Srinivas Mandavilli, Eugene R. Russell, Margaret J. Rys, Proceedings of the 2003 Mid-Continent Transportation Research Symposium, Ames, Iowa, August 2003)

Today we review two studies that examine the impact of modern roundabouts on reducing vehicle emissions compared to an intersection with traffic lights. Results indicate reduced Carbon Dioxide, Carbon Monoxide and Nitrogen Oxide emissions of about 26% with up to 50-60% reductions at peak traffic flow times.  
Key Quotes:
 “When vehicles are idle in a queue they emit about 7 times as much carbon monoxide (CO) as vehicles traveling at 10 mph. The emissions from a stopped vehicle are about 4.5 times greater than a vehicle moving at 5 MPH” “In another study ..in Sweden, .. replacing a signalized intersection with a roundabout resulted in an average decrease in CO emissions by 29 percent and NOx emissions by 21 percent and fuel consumption by 28 percent per car within the influence of the junction”

“there are significant reductions from the roundabout for all parameters, ranging from a 16.36% reduction in nitrous oxide to a 26.05% reduction in hydrocarbons compared to the traffic signal“

“At its peak hour, the roundabout reduces carbon monoxide at the intersection by 8.5 kg/h. Peak hour …is generally regarded to represent about 1/10th of the daily volume. That makes the daily reduction of CO approximately 85 kg/day”

“a signal which meets design criteria will produce up to 26.05% more emissions than a roundabout at the same location“

“The average Carbon Dioxide (CO2) emissions (Kg/hr) for the intersection locations studied are 16 percent and 59 percent less for the AM period and PM periods respectively for the case of a modern roundabout”

“The average Oxides of Nitrogen (Nox) emissions (Kg/hr) for the intersection locations studied are 20 percent and 48 percent less for the AM period and PM periods respectively for the case of a modern roundabout”

Related articles

• U.S. cracks down on vehicle emissions (news.cnet.com)
• Air quality measures in B.C.'s Lower Mainland can't keep up with urban sprawl: report (vancouversun.com)
• Roundabouts and Traffic Lights (lunatractor.com)
• Kanata South roundabout approved at committee (cbc.ca)
• Province unveils Pooles Corner plans (cbc.ca)
• Cautionary Road Rules - Gary Lauder Explains How Roundabouts Can Result in Less Crashes (TrendHunter.com) (trendhunter.com)
• Lake Stevens plans two traffic circles to ease Frontier Village congestion (heraldnet.com)

Tolls, Congestion and HOT Lanes in Canadian Cities

Image via WikipediaCongestive Traffic Failure: The Case for High-Occupancy and Express Toll Lanes in Canadian Cities (9 page pdf, Benjamin Dachis, C.D. Howe Institute, Aug. 31, 2011)

Also discussed here: Think Tank proposes HOT lanes for Vancouver, Calgary and Montreal (Road Pricing, Nov. 2, 2011)

The difficulty on introducing tolls as urban cities become more and more clogged with traffic is addressed in the report reviewed today which suggests high-occupancy toll ( HOT) lanes for Canada’s five largest cities. HOT lanes could generate more than $1 B/ year in much needed net revenue in these cities where congestion costs more than $5 Billion or $410 per capita pm average.

Key Quotes:

“Canada’s urban highways are choked with congestion because road access is free and scarce road space is occupied by drivers who wait, albeit grumpily, in traffic”

“governments have chosen to build carpool lanes on urban highways, despite evidence that these lanes have limited effectiveness in curbing congestion”

“Governments should instead convert existing and planned carpool lanes to high-occupancy toll (HOT) lanes, giving drivers a choice of whether to use them or free lanes.. improve travel time reliability, increasehighway capacity and potentially reduce congestion on un-tolled lanes”

“congestion in Vancouver cost C$927 million per annum ..which comes to C$466 per capita”

“allowing vehicles to use the network by paying a toll akin to C$0.23 per km at peak times and half that at the off peak - to match the Toronto 407 toll road rates.. would generate C$81 million per annum in revenue.”

“taxes on fuel and ownership only cover 53% of road infrastructure costs”

“The political dilemma of pricing what were previously free lanes has hitherto stymied road toll proposals. By preserving a non-toll option, HOT and express lanes provide the solution. They can achieve the benefits of road pricing, while still being politically palatable, since drivers have the choice to drive for free in adjacent lanes”

Related articles

• Slugging: Bringing Casual Carpooling to the North Bay (thegreatermarin.wordpress.com)
• HOT lanes' first rush hour Monday (ajc.com)
• State's HOT lane request denied by feds (ajc.com)
• 100,000th Peach Pass issued for controversial HOT lanes (ajc.com)
• Atlanta traffic: HOT lanes mostly empty on first commute (ajc.com)
• Gov. Deal lowers HOT lane fees for I-85 in Gwinnett (ajc.com)
• Most wouldn't use high-occupancy lanes (autonetinsurance.co.uk)
• Canadians willing to pay road tolls, poll suggests (cbc.ca)

Health Impacts from Exposure to Emissions from Traffic

Image via Wikipedia

Health Update - Association Between Exposure to Traffic and Heart Disease (6 page pdf, Air Resources Board, California Environmental Protection Agency, Feb. 24, 2005)

Today we review a briefing to the California Air Resources Board on the health risks faced by those who travel on or live near freeways. Results “provide evidence for an association between exposure to traffic and its pollutants and increased risk of heart attacks and heart disease risk factors, even in healthy, young adults”.

Key Quotes:

“increased death from heart and lung disease - Particle counts and black carbon increase by a factor of 30 near 405 and 710 freeways”

“There was a rapid decrease in concentration on the downwind side of the freeways to near background levels within about 500 feet”

“for a typical commuter, the in-vehicle exposure to traffic-related pollutants while travelling on freeways can represent more than 50% of their daily exposure to ultrafine PM”

“German investigators focused on residents of Augsburg, a city of about 280,000 residents located near Munich, who experienced nonlethal heart attacks over a two-year period- The risk was greatest – a threefold increase – when traffic exposure occurred one hour before the heart attack”

“Nine healthy North Carolina State Troopers were monitored using real-time electrocardiographs. The volunteers were males ages 23 to 30, non-smokers, and had shifts from 3 pm to midnight- In-vehicle PM2.5 levels were associated with significant changes in markers of inflammation, blood coagulation, and cardiac rhythm, which are possible indicators for increased risk of heart disease”

Related articles

• Fine particle health risks calculated for roughly city size areas in California (nextbigfuture.com)
• Asthma and Heart Disease - Exploring the Link (everydayhealth.com)
• Neighbourhood-Scale Air Pollution Exposure, Walkability and Heart Disease (pollutionfree.wordpress.com)
• Health Risks with Cycling near Traffic (pollutionfree.wordpress.com)
• The Health Impact of Emissions from Light Traffic (pollutionfree.wordpress.com)
• EPA Statement on Health Impacts from Roadside NO2 Emissions (pollutionfree.wordpress.com)

Where are Cars Going Globally in the next 15 years?

Automotive landscape 2025: Opportunities and challenges ahead (90 page pdf, Ralf Kalmbach, Dr. Wolfgang Bernhart, Philipp Grosse Kleimann, Dr. Marcus Hoffmann, Roland Berger Strategy Consultants, March 2011)

The report reviewed today looks at the major global trends expected –geopolitical and population shifts , environmental trends, technology- and what they imply:“the automotive industry will undergo the greatest transformation it has experienced in its history”. A major aspect is the growth of China, both in population terms and as an automobile manufacturer and consumer. A second major aspect is the degree of connectivity between the internet and the new technology built into future cars.



Key Quotes:

“Five megatrends

1. Geopolitical change: Asia will continue to grow stronger, regionalism will increase and regulations will support geopolitical interests.. By 2025 China will be the world's second-largest economy in terms of purchasing power. The USA will remain in first place and India will come third.
2. Changing demographics: More, older, urban.. In 2025 Japan is still expected to have the highest median age, at around 51, followed by Western Europe, at around 46…By 2025 one in six people worldwide will be aged 60 or over. In industrialized countries the ratio will be even more dramatic: no less than one in three people will have reached retirement age.
3. Sustainability: Environmental awareness on the rise.. Annual CO2 emissions have been rising and are predicted to continue rising over the next decades. An increase of around 30% is forecasted for the period 2007 to 2025… the two biggest sectors causing CO2 emissions: power generation (forecast 38% increase) and transport 29%)
4. Evolution of mobility: Motorization will increase and low-cost cars will meet the demand for basic transportation, but younger people in metropolitan areas will lose interest in cars.. Total passenger travel with motorized modes is expected to rise from 6,000 km to 9,000 km per person per year.
5. Changing technology: Electric, electronic, online…gasoline/diesel will remain the most important fuel, with a share of 65-85%. However, even this represents a significant decline from its current level of over 90%...Electricity is expected to grow strongly, from its current niche level up to 3-12% in 2025.

“the High-tech scenario foresees a wide array of car features allowing drivers to stay connected to their networks while driving, use the Internet (cloud-based services) and personalize the MMI.”

“The Budget scenario describes a world in which the purchasing power of customers is strongly reduced due to taxes and inflation combined with low income growth…a high degree of simple, no-frills technology and limited standard equipment levels, enabling a low-cost position”

“The Sustainability scenario describes a world in which consumer behavior is strongly influenced by regulation, legislation and tax…Successful products will be zeroor low-emission vehicles and mobility solutions, allowing intelligent traffic management”

“the automotive sector is becoming glo/cal. The term glo/cal refers to adapting a global framework to local particularities”

Related articles

• Motor trade insurance holders see vehicle output soar (premierlinedirect.co.uk)
• As the U.S. Approaches Durban, Administration Pushes for More Domestic Pollution Cuts (thinkprogress.org)
• New CAFE rules nearly double fuel economy by 2025 (reviews.cnet.com)
• New CAFE rules nearly double fuel economy by 2025 (reviews.cnet.com)
• White House reveals plans to boost cars' fuel efficiency (guardian.co.uk)
• Wheels: Consulting Group Says E.V.'s Are Not Needed to Curb Greenhouse Emissions (wheels.blogs.nytimes.com)
• Green cars in spotlight at waning Japan auto show (seattletimes.nwsource.com)
• Environment: 54.5 mpg and counting ... (summitcountyvoice.com)
• A Push To Make Gasoline Engines More Efficient (npr.org)
• Watching The Wheels Come Off The Green Machine (forbes.com)
• Gujarat, an emerging global automobile manufacturing hub: Modi (thehindu.com)
• UK Car Industry Turnover Rises To £49bn (news.sky.com)