How Will We Get Around Town in 30 years and What Obstacles Need to be Overcome?

What will the local transport system look like in 2045? The future local transport system (David Levinson, Transportist, Dec.19, 2016)

 Also discussed here: What key factors do you see driving these changes over the next 30 years? (David Levinson, Transportist, Dec.19, 2016)

And here: Future Demand - New Zealand transport and society: Scenarios to 2042 (23 page pdf, New Zealand Government, Nov. 2014)

Today we review an interview on the future local transportation with Marcus Enoch by David Levinson and a report looking ahead to 2042 as part of New Zealand project PT2045. Enoch sees the automation of vehicles, their conversion to electric and the rise of shared mobility, as opposed to owning a vehicle, as the three most important changes. There will be a lot more single passenger, two wheeled e-cars and goods will be delivered by robot cars. Manually driven cars on public roads will be prohibited in 25 years. Urban congestion will end before 2042 with fewer, if any, private vehicles on the road. Carbon emissions will fall dramatically.

   

Key Quotes:

“the most important change, will be the automation of vehicles – both private and public transport vehicles.” “The second most important change is the conversion of the vehicle fleet to being primarily electric.”

“The third change .. is the rise of shared mobility, mobility-as-a-service, where people won’t be owning cars, but instead will subscribe to a service, or buy the services on demand.”

“there will be a lot of single passenger vehicles. The best example I have is the Toyota iRoad vehicle, which is basically an enclosed motorcycle that’s safe and stabilised and, will, well before 2045, be automated. And it is safe because, not only is the vehicle designed well, with a roll bar and all that, but because all the other vehicles are also automated.”

 “there will be a substitution of logistic services for a lot of shopping trips, and we need to think about that. In urban areas the best model I have seen was a demo of using a small robot for delivering goods from stores to people’s homes”

“the political system is going to have to play catch up with the technological system, and legal system is also going to be playing catch up. ..Uber decided what service they were going to provide, and they did it illegally, and they got away with it” “From an economic perspective, at the point where it’s cheaper to provide an automated vehicle than it is to provide a manually driven vehicle, people will switch over.”

 “25 year timeframe is probably enough for the last manually driven car to be prohibited from driving on streets or public roads most of the time.”

 “Congestion is a thing of the past. Compared to 2014, fewer people can afford to travel across and between towns by private vehicle so many urban and regional roads are relatively free of private travellers. Inter-regional bus services have increased in popularity, connecting market towns to urban centres.”

“Compared to 2014, people are using all motorised forms of transport far less. People prefer exploring the digital world to travelling outside. Obesity and diabetes rates have increased because of a lack of physical exercise. People regularly try to manage their health by walking and cycling for recreation. Climate emissions from transport have fallen dramatically.”

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How Are Weather Extremes Linked to Climate Change?

Extreme event attribution: the climate versus weather blame game (Rebecca Lindsey, NOAA Climate, Dec. 15, 2016)

 Today we review a paper that describes the statistical process of attributing short term weather extreme events to the longer term changes underway as a result of climate change, whether that is due to natural or man-made burning of carbon fuels. It is important to understand the meaning of return periods. While the probability of a 100 year flood in a given year is 1%, the probability of the same flood over a period of 50 years is 40%. The blaming of an event on climate change depends on how good the observations of past events are, how well climate models can simulate the specific event and how well the physical processes are known and their association with climate change. Extended heat or cold events are more attributable than short term convective storms where the cross links are not as well understood.

   

Key Quotes:

“What is extreme event attribution?

• tells us how much of the credit or risk for an event (or type of events) should go to global warming and how much should go to natural weather patterns or random climate variability.”

“What can extreme event attribution tell us?

• whether global warming made (or will make) an event more likely than it would have been without the rise in greenhouse gases from burning fossil fuels.
• It can tell us if the average number of years between similar events is shorter or longer than it used to be.
• It can tell us what the risk is for a given extreme weather event and if and how much global warming has increased that risk”

“Sigmas are used to describe the range of natural variability in a given climate or weather characteristic. For most types of climate data, there are many more observations close to the average (within 1 or 2 sigmas) than there are far away. So, if a climate expert describes a heavy rain event as a “5-sigma” event, she is talking about rainfall so extreme that it was 5 standard deviations away from the average high tide water level—way out at the tail end of the range of all values that have been observed.”

“So what does a hundred-year event mean?

• The risk that a 100-year event will happen this year, or next year, or any single year is low: 1% chance that it will happen, 99% chance that it won’t. But the chance that it will happen within a given 20-year period is 18%. Within any 50-year period, 40%. Within any 100-year period, 63%. By the time 500 years have passed, there’s less than a 1% chance that such an event won’t have happened.”

“Why are some events more difficult than others to connect to global warming?

Attribution analysis depends on ‘three pillars’ of scientific knowledge:

• The quality of the observational record,
• The ability of models to simulate a given type of extreme event, and
• How well we understand the physical processes that create an event and how global warming may influence those processes.

For event types where all three of these pillars are strong, our confidence in the results is higher. If any of the three pillars is weak, it becomes harder to conduct an attribution study, and our confidence in the results is lower. In general, scientists have the highest confidence for heat events because all three of the pillars are strong”

Related articles

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How Can The US Transportation Become Carbon Free by 2050?

50 Steps Toward Carbon-Free Transportation - Rethinking U.S. Transportation Policy to Fight Global Warming (92 page pdf, Farontier Group, Oct. 24, 2016)

Also discussed here: Report: Global Warming Solutions (Environment America Research & Policy Center, Oct. 24, 2016)

Today we review a report that recommends 50 steps aimed at state and federal program and policies that could make the USA’s transportation system carbon free by 2050. The steps include making carbon reduction strategies a key priority by exploiting the growth of electric vehicles, autonomous vehicles and the sharing of cars and bicycles, adding more effective public transit, employing smart pricing policies and phasing out carbon intensive vehicles and fuels.

   
Key Quotes:

“Efficient electric vehicles that can be powered by clean, renewable electricity are entering the marketplace faster than the hybrid cars of a decade ago “

“An explosion of technology-enabled services – from carsharing to bikesharing to Lyft and Uber – has begun to revolutionize transportation in many cities. “

 “Public transportation reduces vehicle travel (and greenhouse gas emissions) by about 10 percent in U.S. cities, and cities across the country are considering bold plans to expand access to high-quality transit.”

“Cities around the world have shown that smart pricing policies can reduce congestion and encourage the use of low-carbon modes of travel.”

 “autonomous vehicles can be deployed in ways that can support efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions – especially if they facilitate the use of shared mobility services, vehicle electrification and smart pricing, and if public policy limits any increases in vehicle travel resulting from automation.”

 “Principles:

• Climate concerns should inform every transportation policy decision…Only seven states have enforceable, economy-wide limits on carbon pollution, and, as of 2012, the vast majority of states and metropolitan planning organizations did not even consider greenhouse gas emissions in agency planning processes.
• Low-carbon transportation should be at the front of the line for public funding … Between 1956 and 2014, 79 percent of all government capital expenditures on transportation went toward highways,
• People should be rewarded for making low-carbon transportation choices….income tax exclusion for commuter parking subsidizes rush hour driving to the tune of more than $7 billion per year.
• Carbon-intensive vehicles and fuels should be phased out…Federal policies have failed to tap the potential of lower-carbon fuels, with the federal Renewable Fuels Standard currently serving largely to encourage the use of corn ethanol
• Public policy should encourage climate-friendly communities…some localities have begun to lift mandatory minimum parking requirements that add to the cost of new housing development and consume precious and limited urban space.
• Public policy should foster innovation…Key state and federal policies hamper innovation by failing to account for changing circumstances such as the emergence of shared mobility services or growing demand for urban living, or by locking officials into spending or policy practices more attuned to the needs of a previous generation.”

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What Factors are Important for Coastal Cities Facing Sea-Level Rise - A Literature Review

Resilience of Infrastructure Systems to Sea-Level Rise in Coastal Areas: Impacts, Adaptation Measures, and Implementation Challenges (28 page pdf, Beatriz Azevedo de Almeida and Ali Mostafavi, Sustainability, Nov. 1, 2016)

Today we summarize a literature review of research papers examining the impacts of sea level rise on coastal areas of the world which include flooding, coastal erosion, land subsidence and saltwater intrusion. A rise of only ½ a meter in the next 50 years puts at risk 150 million people and $35 trillion of assets in 20 of the world’s most vulnerable port cities. Any success in reducing carbon emissions and the associated increase via climate change in temperature, precipitation and sea level rise would allow for 30% less impact on infrastructure systems such as power stations, oil and gas refineries and wastewater treatment plants.

   

Key Quotes:

 “Expansive areas of low elevation in many densely populated coastal areas are at elevated risk of storm surges and flooding due to torrential precipitation, as a result of sea level rise.”

“A 100-year storm surge, which is expected to begin occurring every 3–20 years, could cost billions of dollars in direct damages after 1 foot of sea-level rise”

 “Salt water intrusion into groundwater aquifers is one of the major impacts of sea-level rise.” “there are 136 major port cities with more than one million inhabitants each, 13 of which are among the top 20 most populated cities in the world.”

“Many of the world’s infrastructure facilities such as power generation facilities, refineries stations, water and wastewater treatment plants, and transportation networks are located along coastlines. As sea levels rise and coastlines erode, infrastructures are more exposed to the forces of nature and becoming structurally unstable.”

“groundwater inundation caused by sea level rise reduces the drainage capacity of storm water systems, and thus, could affect drainage and runoff infiltration…. during Hurricane Sandy in 2012, sewage backup led to the overflow of 11 billion gallons of raw sewage into the streets, rivers, and coastal waters”

“In the U.S., a great number of coastal energy facilities are located in areas exposed to 4 feet sea-level rise. An analysis …identified 287 energy facilities at risk of flooding, spreading throughout 22 coastal states. These facilities include natural gas infrastructures, electric power plants, and oil and gas refineries.”

“Global climate models suggest that global average sea level might rise 18–59 cm by 2100, if ice sheets continue to melt at the rate observed from 1993 to 2003. If the rate increases at the same trend as global temperatures warm, total sea level rise by 2100 might be 10–20 cm greater than the average projections.”

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How Can Transportation in the USA Become Carbon Free by 2050?

50 Steps Toward Carbon-Free Transportation - Rethinking U.S. Transportation Policy to Fight Global Warming (92 page pdf, Farontier Group, Oct. 24, 2016)

Also discussed here: Report: Global Warming Solutions (Environment America Research & Policy Center, Oct. 24, 2016)

Today we review a report that recommends 50 steps aimed at state and federal program and policies that could make the USA’s transportation system carbon free by 2050. The steps include making carbon reduction strategies a key priority by exploiting the growth of electric vehicles, autonomous vehicles and the sharing of cars and bicycles, adding more effective public transit, employing smart pricing policies and phasing out carbon intensive vehicles and fuels.  

Key Quotes:

“Efficient electric vehicles that can be powered by clean, renewable electricity are entering the marketplace faster than the hybrid cars of a decade ago “

 “An explosion of technology-enabled services – from carsharing to bikesharing to Lyft and Uber – has begun to revolutionize transportation in many cities. “

“Public transportation reduces vehicle travel (and greenhouse gas emissions) by about 10 percent in U.S. cities, and cities across the country are considering bold plans to expand access to high-quality transit.”

“Cities around the world have shown that smart pricing policies can reduce congestion and encourage the use of low-carbon modes of travel.”

 “autonomous vehicles can be deployed in ways that can support efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions – especially if they facilitate the use of shared mobility services, vehicle electrification and smart pricing, and if public policy limits any increases in vehicle travel resulting from automation.”

“Principles:

• Climate concerns should inform every transportation policy decision…Only seven states have enforceable, economy-wide limits on carbon pollution, and, as of 2012, the vast majority of states and metropolitan planning organizations did not even consider greenhouse gas emissions in agency planning processes.
• Low-carbon transportation should be at the front of the line for public funding … Between 1956 and 2014, 79 percent of all government capital expenditures on transportation went toward highways,

• People should be rewarded for making low-carbon transportation choices….income tax exclusion for commuter parking subsidizes rush hour driving to the tune of more than $7 billion per year.
• Carbon-intensive vehicles and fuels should be phased out…Federal policies have failed to tap the potential of lower-carbon fuels, with the federal Renewable Fuels Standard currently serving largely to encourage the use of corn ethanol

• Public policy should encourage climate-friendly communities…some localities have begun to lift mandatory minimum parking requirements that add to the cost of new housing development and consume precious and limited urban space.

• Public policy should foster innovation…Key state and federal policies hamper innovation by failing to account for changing circumstances such as the emergence of shared mobility services or growing demand for urban living, or by locking officials into spending or policy practices more attuned to the needs of a previous generation.”

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What Happens to Coastal Cities Vulnerable to Sea Level Rise?

Adapting to rates versus amounts of climate change: a case of adaptation to sea-level rise ( 9 page pdf, Soheil Shayegh, Juan Moreno-Cruz and Ken Caldeira, Environmental Research Letters, Oct. 4, 2016)

Today we review the most immediate aspect of climate change- its impact in terms of sea level rise and how best to adapt to this financially, given that many coastal cities are threatened including London, New York, and Tokyo. The authors consider four scenarios given the current rate of rise of 44 cm/100 years which is expected to increase by almost a factor of ten to 344 cm/100 years as Antarctic ice continues to melt over the next 1,000 years for a 60 m rise in sea level. The scenarios include: taking no action, creating a buffer zone, adapting to change in rise and building dikes to withstand increased sea levels. The optimum distance from the sea for safety increases from 310 m to 481 m as the rate of rise of sea level doubles. Insurance based on static risk need to be revised to a more flexible approach based on rate of rise.

   
Key Quotes:

“climate is likely to continue changing far into the future. Here, we show how considering rates of change affects the projected optimal adaptation strategy.”

“Recent studies indicate that sea-level may continue to rise for millennia, ultimately leading to up to 60mof sea-level rise” “optimal investment strategies depends on taking into account future rates of sea level rise, as well as social and political constraints….Unrestrained fossil-fuel combustion with release of CO2 to the atmosphere has the potential to ultimately melt all of Antarctica at rates of sea-level rise averaging up to 3 cmyr−1 over the next 1000 years “

“Over the next 1000 years, sea-level is projected to rise at an average rate of 3.44 cm yr−1, if all available fossil fuel resources are combusted and the CO2 released to the atmosphere”

 “In the scenarios where rate of change is taken into account …, the optimal distance from the shoreline for investment increases from 310 to 481m as the rate of sea-level is doubled from 1 to 2 cm yr“

 “Failure to recognize the need for adapting to the rate of climate change undervalues the benefits of early adaptation strategies and increases vulnerability to climate change.”

“Flood insurance policies traditionally estimate the likelihood of a flood by assigning a probability to such event. New insurance policies can be designed by taking into account the ongoing rate of sea-level and updating the flood likelihood.”

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The Future of the World and Cities in It

Indoor and Built Environment (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Urban futures: anticipating a world of cities (6 page pdf, Geci Karuri-Sebina, Karel-Herman Haegeman and Apiwat Ratanawaraha, Foresight, Sep. 10, 2016)

Key Quotes: 

“Modern urbanisation has led to a larger number of megacities (over 10 million inhabitants) and rapidly growing smaller towns and cities. In 1950, only two megacities existed in the world; New York-Newark (USA) and Tokyo (Japan). By 2015, it is reported that 35 megacities were in existence, the largest of these being Tokyo and Shanghai (China), each with populations of over 30 million inhabitants” 

“rapid urbanisation is hailed as being a transformative force, improving economic prospects and quality of life for the majority, alleviating poverty, driving innovation and productivity, working towards social inclusion and contributing to national and regional development“

 “On the other hand, there are also real tensions and contradictions that emerge. For example, similar to economic activity and growth, unemployment/joblessness and poverty are largely urban….they also remain the loci of major political conflicts, driven by racial and cultural tensions and diverging citizen values, which are increasingly propelled by the proliferation of digital media”

 “The trend of urbanisation is also accompanied by efforts in various parts of the world to decentralize political and administrative functions to local governments so as to enhance good governance.” 

“Urban challenges are tremendous, and the types of challenges addressed in anticipatory initiatives are seemingly suitably vast, ranging from sustainability, the built environment, energy, culture and mobility to security and food security, exposure to flood and drought hazards, values, multicultural aspects” 

“The 21st century will not be dominated by America or China, Brazil or India, but by The City. In a world that increasingly appears ungovernable, cities – not states – are the islands of governance on which the future world order will be built”  

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