Monday, July 14, 2014

On What are Cities Focusing When Taking Action on Climate Change?

Planning for climate change and the urban future ( Luísa Zottis, the city fix, Jun. 10, 2014)

Also discussed here: Cidades planejam-se para mudanças climáticas (Luísa Zottis, the city fix Brasil, Jun. 10, 2014)

And here: Global survey: Climate change now a mainstream part of city planning - Survey reveals cities are planning for climate change, but still searching for links to economic growth. (Peter Dizikes, MIT News Office, May 29, 2014)

Today we review a survey of how cities globally are dealing with climate change. The good news is that almost 3/4s of those surveyed are taking action on both mitigation and adaptation- this drops to 58% in the USA. The bad news is that most cities in the US and Canada assign responsibility for this file to only one staff member, which says something about the intent and lack of resource commitment of the cities and their political leaders. Also although 85% of cities have completed an inventory of greenhouse gas emissions, only 15% have taken steps to control or reduce those emissions. Another worrisome statistic is that while many cities focus on mitigation/emissions reduction, only a few (such as Australia) focus on adaptation perhaps because of the imminent an continuing severity of climate change impacts such as flooding and forest fires in that country.

  NYC-waterfront-640-X-480 

Key Quotes:

“Climate change isn’t an isolated issue…It has large implications for all other aspects of urban life. What we are seeing is cities starting to build it into the DNA of how they approach urban planning.”

“75 percent of cities worldwide now tackle climate-change issues as a mainstream part of their planning, and 73 percent of cities are attempting both climate mitigation and climate adaptation … But only 21 percent of cities report tangible connections between the response to climate change and achieving other local development goals.”

“Urban planners in Alberta, as Aylett notes, have studied the cost savings associated with limiting metropolitan sprawl and concluded that denser development could save $11 billion in capital costs over the next 60 years, and $130 million in annual maintenance”

“Compared with the global average of 75 percent, U.S. cities lag in planning for both mitigation and adaptation, with just 58 percent of cities addressing both.”

“North American cities are most likely to have just one staff member focused on the topic”

“A lack of funding to hire sufficient staff to work on climate change is a significant challenge for 67 percent of cities.”

“85% of cities have a local inventory of GHG emissions. Still, only 15% of cities invest in controlling emissions resulting from the consumption of goods and services in the city, even if they have data showing that they need to act”

“In the United States, mitigation policies account for 41% of the climate change planning agenda, whereas Australian cities are pursuing largely adaptation-oriented goals”

Friday, July 11, 2014

What Incentives can be used to Shift Drivers away from Traffic Peaks?

Can Spatial Analytics Combined with Behavioral Economics Ease Congestion? (Tod Newcombe, Solutions for Government Technology Jun. 3, 2014)

Also discussed here: Beyond Congestion Pricing: Reducing Traffic Problems by Changing People’s Commuting Habits (Tod Newcombe, Governing, Jun. 4, 2014)

And here: Urban Engines

Today we review an article that suggests that the solution to reduce traffic congestion is to offer drivers incentives to not drive at peak volume times, based on a statistical analysis of driving behavior and timing of rush hours. Smart cards can be used not only for incentives but also as a source of information about hot spot frequency and location. 

  LosAngelesArea-RushHour  

Key Quotes:

“We attack urban congestion with a combination of insights about the underlying traffic model and incentives to shift behavior,” “Paying people to not travel at peak hours has proven very effective,”

“In a pilot project conducted in Banglore India, where traffic congestion has reached epic levels, incentives involving lottery tickets convinced a respectable 17 percent of commuters to shift their travel time away from peak hours.”

“Urban Engines has worked with transit agencies in three cities – Singapore, Sao Paolo and Washington, D.C. – using data from smart cards to create a data model for spatial analysis. The smart cards also provide a mechanism for incentives. Train passengers could be offered discounts on their cards if they used them during nonpeak time periods”

“It’s useful to know how, when and where the congestion hotspots occur…That leads to a better understanding of how supply is used and making the supply more flexible…..If you make supply more responsive to demand or incentivize the demand, you can change commuting behavior,”

Wednesday, July 9, 2014

Do We Need to Monitor Global Greenhouse Gases Emissions from Space?

Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO) (NASA, Jet Propulsion Laboratory)

Also discussed here: CO2 Monitoring Could Be “Space-Based” in Future (Bobby Magill, Climate Central, May 29, 2014)

And here: Multiscale observations of CO2, 13CO2, and pollutants at Four Corners for emission verification and attribution (6 page pdf, Rodica Lindenmaier, Manvendra K. Dubey, Bradley G. Henderson, Zachary T. Butterfield, Jay R. Herman, Thom Rahn and Sang-Hyun Lee,Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), May 19, 2014)

And here: The President’s Climate Action Plan (White House, USA, Jun. 2013)

And here: Carbon Pollution Emission Guidelines for Existing Stationary Sources: Electric Utility Generating Units (645 page pdf, Environmental Protection Agency, USA, Jun. 2, 2014)

Today we review progress toward monitoring CO2 for the entire earth from a space-based platform, an approach that began in 2001 using the SCIAMACHY imaging spectrometer on the ENVISAT European satellite. In developed countries such as the USA, China or Canada, the main sources of CO2are either large coal or natural gas-burning plants or the emissions from heating/cooling building and vehicle emissions in urban areas which collectively contribute 80% of each countries emissions. Monitoring these emissions from the point sources is a complicated and time consuming task.

Recent research indicated that space based estimates of the CO2 found in columns extended to the earth’s surface compare well with ground based measurements. Plans to launch an improved sensor, the Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO) on July 1, 2014, combined with the commitment by the United States to reduce CO2 emissions from coal plants and other point sources and the need to monitor emissions globally validates the requirement for better space based estimates which are more efficiently collected and probably more accurate than the accumulated ground-based estimates.

  OCO_column  

Key Quotes:

“There is a pressing need to verify air pollutant and greenhouse gas emissions from= anthropogenic fossil energy sources to enforce current and future regulations. We demonstrate the feasibility of using simultaneous remote sensing observations of column abundances of CO2, CO, and NO2 to inform and verify emission inventories.”

“Under the Clean Air Act, in the United States these emissions are considered a threat to public health and welfare and are regulated by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).”

 “Nationwide, by 2030, this rule would achieve CO2 emission reductions from the power sector of approximately 30 percent from CO2 emission levels in 2005…the significant reductions in the harmful carbon pollution and in other air pollution, to which this rule would lead, would result in net climate and health benefits of $48 billion to $82 billion.”

“current reporting in non-US countries is based on bottom–up estimates that use the type of fuel burned, power plant thermal efficiency, and CO2 conversion factors, rather than direct measurements of CO2 emissions.”

“Our high-frequency and precision ground based remote-sensing results provide the performance metric and sampling strategy for satellite-based measurements, permitting a global emission monitoring system…Our findings offer promise for future satellite-based monitoring approaches that simultaneously measure column CO2 and NO2 and determine emission factors from space.”

 “To fully exploit this capability, we need to acquire measurements like this at high spatial resolution over the entire globe… One way to do this (is) to collect remote sensing observations from sensors deployed on space-based platforms. We have started down this road and we are making good progress.”

“coal accounts for 70 percent of energy used in China today, primarily for electricity production, and its coal use is increasing…Chinese provincial and national CO2 emissions do not agree … There is a large gap between the two. We need to know which is right for accurate accounting and future targets.”

“The Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO) was a NASA Earth System Science Pathfinder Project (ESSP) mission designed to make precise, time-dependent global measurements of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) from an Earth orbiting satellite.”

“OCO-2's primary science objective is still to substantially increase our understanding of how carbon dioxide sources and sinks are geographically distributed on regional scales and how their efficiency changes over time.”

Monday, July 7, 2014

How Congested with Traffic are Canadian Cities?

TomTom Americas Traffic Index (74 page pdf, TomTom, Jun. 3, 2014)

Also discussed here: TomTom Live Traffic And here: Vancouver home to worst gridlock in Canada (CTV News, Jun. 3, 2014)

Today we review the latest report on Traffic Congestion by the GPS-maker, TomTom. The three worst cities in Canada are Vancouver, Toronto and Ottawa where the average driver with a 30 minute commute encounters as much as 87 hours of delay each year. TomTom also produces real-time, live traffic congestion maps, such as the one shown below for Ottawa during the morning rush hour. The reddened areas indicate where there is a need for congestion charging to lower and redistribute peak traffic flow away from these road segments.


congestion Ottawa 

Key Quotes:

“A new study is out suggesting Vancouver is the worst city in Canada for gridlock…. the average person experiences 87 hours of delay time a year, based on a 30 minute daily commute.. After Vancouver…the most congested cities in Canada are Toronto, then Ottawa, Montreal, Calgary, Quebec City and Edmonton.”

“Moscow tops the international list, followed by Istanbul, Rio de Janeiro, Mexico City, Sao Paulo, Palermo, Warsaw, Rome, Los Angeles and Dublin.”

“The methodology… measures travel times during the whole day and during peak periods and compares these with measured travel times during non-congested periods(free flow). The difference is expressed as a total average percentage increase in travel time…As well as assigning and ranking the overall congestion level of over 180 cities on different continents, the report evaluates the congestion levels at different times of the day and on different days of the week”

Friday, July 4, 2014

What Should Cities do to Protect Themselves against Climate Impacts?

Learning with practitioners: climate change adaptation priorities in a Canadian community (17 page pdf, Ian M. Picketts & John Curry & Stephen J. Déry & Stewart J. Cohen, Climatic Change, Dec. 14, 2012)

Today we review a study that describes the steps by a small mountain town in northern British Columbia to produce a substantive climate adaptation plan- which is unusual for many Canadian towns and cities (and perhaps in other countries) where climate change is approached only in a conceptual or general way and rarely is the local community engaged in defining the threats and solutions. The authors emphasize the need to first assess past climatic events, then engage the community through better communications and partnerships, shift from general concepts of climate impacts to specific detailed assessments, and then link the solutions to other policies and plans while keeping communities informed throughout. The Prince George example needs to be replicated in other communities with local impacts brought in.

 climate adaptation prince george 

Key Quotes:

 “Advancements in climate modeling capabilities, particularly related to downscaling, enable decision-makers to consider the risks and opportunities of climate change at the local scale and to implement appropriate responses in their communities”

“only 13 % of articles related to adaptation in human systems had shifted focus to actions beyond assessments, capacity evaluations and conceptual approaches”

“achieving local adaptation involves effectively translating information to a community context, and engaging with local decision-makers to help them apply this information in their fields of practice as ‘extension agents’. Because of adaptation’s low profile compared to mitigation and the multitude of challenges facing communities, it is best to normalize actions into existing community plans to improve chances of implementation”

"Steps to produce a sound climate adaptation plan for a community:
  • incorporate rigorous climatic analysis into assessments;
  • promote communication and teamwork so that adaptation initiatives are part of broader organizational approaches;
  • shift from general approaches toward explicit adaptation actions;
  • link adaptation plans to other policies and objectives; and
  • plan proactively in a small city for multiple impacts unrelated to sea level rise.”

Wednesday, July 2, 2014

How Will Climate Change Affect Storm Rainfall?

Heavier summer downpours with climate change revealed by weather forecast resolution model (Abstract, Elizabeth J. Kendon, Nigel M. Roberts, Hayley J. Fowler, Malcolm J. Roberts, Steven C. Chan & Catherine A. Senior, Nature Climate Change | Letter, Jun. 1. 2014)

Also discussed here: Climate change to boost summer flash floods, says study (Matt McGrath, BBC news, Jun. 1, 2014)

Today we review an article that describes nine months of simulations with the British supercomputer normally used for numerical weather prediction but using a much finer 1.5 km resolution, instead of the normal 12 km grid and using the IPCC scenario for rapid climate warming. The results indicate, not unexpectedly, that the added moisture in warmer air masses during summer would produce more intense rainfall rates than at present and as much as five times more heavy rainfalls – even though the summer total rainfall, as a whole, would likely be drier. The apparently contradictory conclusion reveals what many people who do not look at rainfall statistics might find surprising- that very heavy rainfall (say over 10-20 mm/day) only occurs once or twice a month at places not subject to ocean storms or storms enhanced by mountains (such as Argentina/Colombia for example).

The accumulated monthly total depends not only on the heavy rain days but also on the number of many light rain or drizzle days. In this case, it appears that there might be an increase in the number of heavy rain days and a decrease in the lighter ones – which is the scenario expected when you shift from many overcast “drizzly” days to a few thunderstorm days. This fits well with the scenarios that scientists in Europe, the US and Canada have been predicting in general terms for decades from computerized climate models with coarser resolution– more convective storms because of hotter surface temperatures and heavier amounts because of the added moisture in the air. This computer experiment now confirms these estimates with more precision and suggests that flood authorities in other countries take note, not just those in the UK.


uk floods 

Key Quotes:

“researchers say there could be five times the number of "extreme rainfall events" per hour, under extreme warming projections.”

“Until now, their climate models have not been good enough to work out the effect on extreme hourly rainfall in the warmer months. To improve the resolution of their model, researchers in this latest experiment used 1.5km grid spacings instead of the normal 12km. “

"It is dry periods interspersed with these very intense downpours, and we are talking about thresholds of 30mm and above in an hour over quite a large area here, which would be associated with really severe flash flooding,"

“the 1.5 km model also shows a future intensification of short-duration rain in summer, with significantly more events exceeding the high thresholds indicative of serious flash flooding.”