Monday, January 13, 2014

How Close Are We to the Tipping Points from Climate Change?

Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change:Anticipating Surprises (201 page pdf, James W.C. White, Richard B. Alley, David E. Archer, Anthony D. Barnosky, Jonathan Foley, Rong Fu, Marika M. Holland, M. Susan Lozier, Johanna Schmitt, Laurence C. Smith, George Sugihara, David W. J. Thompson, Andrew J. Weaver, Steven C. Wofsy, National Academy of Sciences, Dec. 3, 2013)

Also discussed here: An Update on Risks of Abrupt Jolts from Global Warming (Andrew C. Revkin, New York Times, Dot Earth, Dec. 3, 2013) And here: Investigation of the Magnitudes and Probabilities of Abrupt Climate TransitionS (IMPACTS) Project (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory)

Today we review an assessment of climate change in terms of how far it has advanced and what the risk is of crossing a tipping point, in terms of climate impacts for the rest of the century. The authors give a low risk of major changes in ocean current circulation and overturning, the melting of major ice sheets such as the polar ice caps as low, while giving a moderate risk to such impacts as extreme heat waves and floods and rapid state changes in ecosystems which puts vulnerable populations of people in danger as well as endangered species of wildlife. They recommend improved scientific monitoring and a better understanding of the climate system as part of an abrupt change early warning system. arctic sea ice extent  

Key Quotes:

“This study differs from previous treatments of abrupt changes by discussing both the abrupt changes in the physical climate system (hereafter called “abrupt climate change”), as well as the abrupt changes in the physical, biological, or human systems that result from steadily changing aspects of the climate system (hereafter referred to as “abrupt climate impacts”).”

 “Right now, we don’t know what many of these thresholds are…But with better information, we will be able to anticipate some major changes before they occur and help reduce the potential consequences”

“Climate is not the only stressor on the Earth system—other factors, including resource depletion and ever-growing human consumption and population, are exerting enormous pressure on nature’s and society’s resilience to sudden changes.”

“Carbon dioxide emissions from the energy sector will rise 20 percent by 2035 ..according to the IEA’s 2013 World Energy Outlook… this leaves the world in a trajectory consistent with a long term increase of 3.6 C, far above the internationally agreed 2 C target ”

“Summertime heat waves will likely become longer, more frequent, more severe, and more relentless with decreased potential to cool down at night. Increases in heat-related deaths due to climate change are likely to outweigh decreases in deaths from cold snaps…In general, heat waves and the associated health issues disproportionately affect more vulnerable populations such as the elderly, children, those with existing cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, and those who are economically disadvantaged or socially isolated”

“No matter how clear our foresight, no matter how accurate our computer models, a belief about the future should never be mistaken for the truth. The future, as such, never occurs. It becomes the present. And no matter how well we prepare ourselves, when the imagined future becomes the very real present, it never fails to surprise.”—Alan AtKisson, Believing Cassandra
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Friday, January 10, 2014

What is the Risk of a Stroke from Long Term Exposure to Particulate Matter ?

Fine Particulate Air Pollution and the Progression of Carotid Intima-Medial Thickness: A Prospective Cohort Study from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis and Air Pollution (9 page pdf, Sara D. Adar, Lianne Sheppard, Sverre Vedal, Joseph F. Polak, Paul D. Sampson, Ana V. Diez Roux, Matthew Budoff, David R. Jacobs, Jr., R. Graham Barr, Karol Watson, Joel D. Kaufman, PLOS Medecine, Apr. 23, 2013)

Also discussed here: Air Pollution as a Heart Threat (Deborah Blum, New York Times Poison Pen blog, Nov. 15, 20)

And here: Evolution of Air Pollution Monitoring in Ottawa (Natty Urquizo, 60 slides PowerPoint, Upwind-Downwind Conference, Hamilton, Feb. 23, 2012)

Today we review research into the health impact of long term (10 years) exposure to particulate matter and how this affects the thickening of arterial walls [intima-medial thickness]and heart disease through atherosclerosis. Results indicate that an increase of PM 2.5 mg/m3 is associated with a 2% relative increase in strokes and is evident at the neighbourhood level. This is significant because it expands the impact of PM from the known impact of short term exposure to long term. It also suggests that neighbourhoods located near higher levels of PM (such as proximity to vehicle emissions from traffic) would have higher mortality. Studies (such as from the City of Ottawa) show that many urban areas have more than 50% of vulnerable populations living within 50 m of busy roads and are at risk.pm and strokesproximity to roads ottawa  

Key Quotes:  

“The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis and Air Pollution (MESA Air) was designed to investigate associations between long term PM2.5 exposures and the progression of atherosclerosis over a10-y follow-up period using information from the large population-based MESA cohort who were without pre-existing cardiovascular disease at baseline”

“increased exposure to pollutants, after other factors are factored out, can be directly linked to narrowing of blood vessels and to a steady thickening of artery walls"

“In a large prospective cohort study of adults without pre-existing cardiovascular disease, we found evidence that individuals with higher long-term residential concentrations of PM2.5 experience a faster rate of IMT [intima-medial thickness] progression as compared to other people within the same metropolitan area.”

“higher long-term PM2.5 exposures may be associated with an acceleration of vascular pathologies over time. As such, they may help explain why epidemiological studies have repeatedly found much larger associations between mortality and chronic air pollution exposures than can be explained by short-term triggering of cardiovascular events alone.”

 “participants living in parts of town with 2.5 mg/m3 higher concentrations of PM2.5 would have a 2% relative increase risk in stroke as compared to persons in a less polluted part of the metropolitan area.”

“these results for IMT in the first three exams of a large, multi-center, population-based cohort study support the hypothesis that PM2.5 may be associated with the progression of atherosclerosis, even at levels below existing regulatory standards. Such a pathway would lend further support to reported associations between air pollution and the incidence of clinical cardiovascular disease.”
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Wednesday, January 8, 2014

Does Your City have a Climate Action Plan?

Reduction of flood and associated extreme weat...
Reduction of flood and associated extreme weather costs is the primary benefit of climate change mitigation. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
Climate change response in Europe: what’s the reality? Analysis of adaptation and mitigation plans from 200 urban areas in 11 countries(Abstract, D. Reckien, J. Flacke, R. J. Dawson, O. Heidrich, M. Olazabal, A. Foley, J. J.-P. Hamann, H. Orru, M. Salvia, S. De Gregorio Hurtado, D. Geneletti, F. Pietrapertosa, CLmate Change, Nov. 25, 2013) 

Also discussed here: The Reality Behind Europe's Response to Climate Change(Science Daily, Nov. 25, 2013) 

Today we review an objective review of what action cities in Europe are taking to mitigate climate change though greenhouse gas emission reductions and adapt to climate change by building resilience into their infrastructures among other things. The result of this review revealed that only ¼ of the cities surveyed (50 out of 200) are prepared to deal with both mitigation and adaptation. If those cities represented the emissions from their 11 respective countries, they would miss the desired global target of 80% reduction by 2050 by only reaching 37% reduction which translates into 27% for the EU as a whole. The authors call for an international database to monitor progress by the world’s cities - something that might be developed before the 2015 Conference of the Parties (COP) in Paris where hard targets after 2020 are to be agreed on.

Key Quotes: 

“We performed a detailed analysis of 200 large and medium-sized cities across 11 European countries and analysed the cities’ climate change adaptation and mitigation plans” 

“Their analysis is the first to look objectively at strategic policy and planning documents rather than relying on self-reported measures such as questionnaires and interviews of city representatives.” 

“35 % of European cities studied have no dedicated mitigation plan and 72 % have no adaptation plan.” 

“One quarter of the cities have both an adaptation and a mitigation plan and set quantitative GHG reduction targets” 

“Dutch cities are the most ambitious aiming to be 'carbon-', 'climate-' or 'energy-neutral' (100 percent reduction target) by 2050 or earlier.” 

“if the planned actions within cities are nationally representative the 11 countries investigated would achieve a 37 % reduction in GHG emissions by 2050, translating into a 27 % reduction in GHG emissions for the EU as a whole.” 

"To better understand the global climate change response and emissions reduction actions, we recommend the establishment of an international database of mitigation and adaptation options that builds upon this European study,"




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Monday, January 6, 2014

Dubai’s Efficient Approach to Road Pricing

Salik (road toll)(Wikipedia)

Also discussed here: Dubai's Salik experiment makes a clear case for toll roads(Alice Haine, The National, Jun. 28, 2012)

And here: Salik Official Website(Roads and Transport Authority, Government of Dubai)

And here: Salik Road Toll Dubai(Dubai FAQs Forum)

Today we review Dubai’s road toll system, called “Salik” meaning open or clear, the first road tolling system in the Middle East. Since opening in 2007, Salik has been expanded by adding more toll gates to congested roads, especially enroute to the airport. The key feature is the use of a Radio Frequency Identification Device (RFID) affixed to the windshield which triggers a deduction of about one dollar US (or 4 AED) from a prepaid charge card each time the vehicle passes a toll gate, equipped to detect the RFIDs automatically. The results include shortening the travel time by 50% and shifting traffic to less used roads, as well as creating a source of revenue(600 AED or $200 M US approx. per year) to maintain the roads, paid for by users of the roads.

 Salik_Tag Salik's_Al_Garhoud_Bridge_Toll_Gate  

Key Quotes:

“Salik, meaning open or clear, is Dubai’s road toll collection system. First launched in July 2007, Salik is a free flow tolling system that operates without toll booths, barriers or gates, allowing traffic to move freely through tolling points at highway speeds.”

"The system was introduced to relieve the congestion and direct traffic to other arterials in a way to achieve a system optimal solution of travel time”

 “Motorists are required to buy a 100 AED pre-paid card that is affixed to their windscreens. 4 AED ($1.08) will automatically be deducted from their account each time they pass through a toll gate”

“SALIK tags are 'passive' RFID tags. 'Passive' tags are powered by the transceiver in the toll gate and no battery is required for the tag itself.” “Studies have proven that Salik has succeeded in slashing the trip time on the Shaikh Zayed Road by as much as 44 per cent…from 34 minutes before the initial 2007 phase of Salik to 19 minutes now.”

"Everyone's got their little tag and there aren't any more questions about it - the gates are almost invisible. And the road system has improved dramatically. “

“The RTA have said they expect to generate annual revenue of about 600 million dhs from Salik.”

“The use of this technology enables the traffic to continue flowing through the toll gates as opposed to vehicles having to stop and pay a monetary toll as on more traditional toll gates. The fees are currently relatively low, when compared to other major cities such as London”  

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Friday, January 3, 2014

Top Five New Posts on Pollution Free Cities in 2013

  1. The Significant Role of Public Participation in Urban Sustainability Issues
Who Governs in Cities: Business Interests or Public Advocacy for Sustainability?(21 page pdf, Jeffrey M. Berry and Kent E. Portney, Sustainability, May7, 2013)

Today we review an analysis of the way that 50 cities in the USA performs in terms of economic growth and sustainability and the role of public advocacy and business groups in their governance. It concludes that economic growth is a necessary condition to allow for the inclusion of the public input in developing sustainable urban policies in cities such as Portland or Seattle. As a side note, the article points out the striking difference in the roles of public and business advocacy at the national vs. the local level- and the difference this makes in how cities are governed.

To see Key Quotes and Links to key reports about this post, click HERE  

2. Monitoring Roadside Air Pollution and Urban Health Impacts

Evolution of Air Pollution Monitoring in Ottawa (60 slide ppt, Natty Urquizo and Martha Robinson, Upwind Downwind Conference 2012, Hamilton, ON, Feb. 27, 2012)

Also discussed here: Ottawa Air Quality Information System(10 page pdf, Natividad Urquizo, Daniel Spitzer, William Pugsley and Martha Robinson, 44th Annual Congress of the Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society, Ottawa, ON, May 29-June 4, 2010)

And here: Mapping Small Scale Air Pollution Distribution using Satellite Observations an a Large Canadian City(6 page pdf, Natividad Urquizo; D. Spitzer; W. Pugsley and M. Robinson, 11th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry of the annual conference of the American Meteorological Society at Phoenix AZ, Jan. 12, 2009)

And here: Is Air Quality Affecting Your Health?(John Lorinc, UofT Magazine, Jan. 11, 2013)

Today we review a paper presented at the biannual Upwind-Downwind Conference in Hamilton that describes the development of a fairly unique urban air quality program. The program was given a boost in 2007 by a project that combined satellite air quality data from space with observations from a dozen ground stations to produce maps at 10 km resolution at 10 minute intervals for a year over the national capital area (which includes the twin cities of Ottawa and Gatineau). Further applications of these data with real-time traffic flow data allowed for mapping down to the street level in downtown Ottawa and assessments of health impacts near these roads which showed that over 50% of schools and old age homes are located within 50 m of heavy traffic, placing the most vulnerable residents at risk from vehicle emissions. A new program has just been announced by the University of Toronto to examine similar applications of roadside emissions and health impacts in Canada’s largest city.

 To see Key Quotes and Links to key reports about this post, click HERE  

3. How Can the World deal with Climate Change and Overpopulation?

Can a collapse of global civilization be avoided?(10 page pdf, Paul R. Ehrlich and Anne H. Ehrlich, Proceedings of the Royal Society, Jan. 8, 2013)

Today we review a paper written by ecologist Paul Ehrlich on his election to the Royal Society in 2012. He assesses the prospects for survival of human civilization as we know it, faced with overpopulation, increasing consumption of natural resources and a growing set of interacting and serious challenges that slowly but persistently threaten to overwhelm society’s ability to cope. One apt observation about this state of affairs is the difficulty in dealing with slow, almost imperceptible, changes, given that the magnitude of the responses needed become greater with time- something that many short term political thinkers have difficulty with. This leads to the suggestion for “foresight intelligence”- an approach that looks at the various scenarios possible or likely and where these lead so that the re4sults of various policies can be evaluated in advance. It strikes this reviewer that thinking about change is needed from the bottom-up rather than leaving it all to action and policy at the global level because it is in urban centres where most people live and where the impacts of inaction are so often first felt and where a change in energy use and consumption can probably best be achieved.

To see Key Quotes and Links to key reports about this post, click HERE  

4. Vehicle Emissions and Water Quality

Understanding Atmospheric Deposition in Tampa Bay(3 page pdf, Bay Region Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment (BRACE))

Also discussed here: From the Tailpipe to Tampa Bay: Air Pollution Research Reveals Impact of Cars(Bradenton Times, Dec. 17, 2012)

 Vehicle emissions not only cause harmful health impacts for people near them but they also affect the quality of the water near urban areas by adding nitrogen dioxides to the water off the coast which promotes algae growth, starving the fish of oxygen. Today we review a report from Tampa on the amount of nitrogen oxides reaching the water from the atmosphere, mainly from vehicle emissions that pollute Tampa Bay. Many of the same strategies for improving urban air quality on land apply here as well for water quality: more low emission vehicles, more monitoring of dry deposition and reestablish atmospheric monitoring stations. As EPA notes: “driving a car is a typical citizen’s most polluting daily activity.

To see Key Quotes and Links to key reports about this post, click HERE

 5. How Does Urban Population Growth Affect Health in China and Elsewhere?

Urbanisation and health in China (10 page pdf, Peng Gong, Song Liang, Elizabeth J Carlton, Qingwu Jiang, Jianyong Wu, Lei Wang, Justin V Remais, The Lancet, Mar. 3, 2012)

Today we review the state of the environment and health in the most quickly growing (and largest) cities in the world that have come about because of a massive shift from rural to urban areas where migrants make up 40% of the population. A major health threat comes from the parallel increase in industry and increase in the use of vehicles which affect outdoor air quality and is the cause of 400,000 premature deaths each year which becomes even more critical in a society that is aging faster (and is older) than the global average (by 2050, median age expected to be 50 vs 38 years). The paper under review calls for more stringent regulation of industrial and vehicle emissions.

To see Key Quotes and Links to key reports about this post, click HERE
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Wednesday, January 1, 2014

2013 in review

The WordPress.com stats helper monkeys prepared a 2013 annual report for this blog. SNOW Here's an excerpt:
The concert hall at the Sydney Opera House holds 2,700 people. This blog was viewed about 20,000 times in 2013. If it were a concert at Sydney Opera House, it would take about 7 sold-out performances for that many people to see it.
Click here to see the complete report.
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