Ontario's Climate Action Plan from 2016 to 2020

Ontario’s Five Year Climate Change Action Plan 2016-2020 (Ontario Ministry of the Environment and Climate Change, Jun. 8, 2016)

Also discussed here: Five things you need to know about how Ontario’s climate change action plan will affect your life (Financial Post, Jun. 8, 2016)

And here: Ontario's climate change action plan: what it needs to succeed (Mike Crawley, CBC News, Jun. 8, 2016)

Today we review Ontario’s first climate action plan with targets for the period 2016-2020. The planned GHG reductions fall within a plan to reduce overall emissions by 15% by 2020, 37% by 2030 and 80% by 2050 with most of the reductions coming from three sectors with 85% of current (2013) emissions: transportation (35%), industry (28%) and buildings (19%). Although Ontario is approaching carbon pricing in a different way (Cap and Trade) than British Columbia did 8 years ago using a revenue-neutral carbon tax, a similar approach is to require all municipalities to produce a climate mitigation and adaptation plan. The BC approach is expected to reduce B.C.’s emissions in 2020 by up to three million tonnes of CO2 equivalent annually, roughly the equivalent to the greenhouse gas emissions created by 787,000 cars per year. Revenue from carbon tax itself $500M/year, was returned to taxpayers who pay less than any other provincial taxpayers in Canada. In addition, the serious way that Ontario is approaching the need for electric vehicles through incentives for new e-cars and for many new charging stations gives some assurance that both the carbon pollutants and toxic air emissions from today’s cars and trucks will be reduced.

1. Under Transportation:

• incentives for e-vehicles ($140-160M)
• more charging stations ($80M)

1. Under Buildings

• Incentives for heat pumps and geothermal ($500-600M)
• Free energy audits ($200-250M)

1. Municipal Land Use Planning

• greenhouse gas pollution reduction challenge fund or program.($250-300M)
• make climate change mitigation and adaptation mandatory in municipal official plans.”

1. R&D

• Create a Global Centre for Low Carbon Mobility ($100-140M)

Other actions are planned for agriculture, industry and in collaboration with the federal government..  

Key Quotes:

“The plan…calls for government spending of $5.9 billion to $8.3 billion on climate change initiatives over the next five years. The money would come from the $1.9 billion the Liberal government expects to raise each year by auctioning off pollution emission credits when Ontario joins a cap-and-trade market with Quebec and California next January.”

 “The plan calls for spending of up to $1.1 billion to help businesses switch to more low-carbon technologies, reducing costs and emissions. Up to $290 million will be used to provide incentives for businesses that want to buy low-carbon commercial vehicles and technologies to reduce emissions, including electric and natural gas-powered trucks, anti-idling devices and electric trailer refrigeration.”

1. Transportation

“The action plan establishes a province wide electric and hydrogen passenger vehicle sales target of five per cent in 2020. This target will be reviewed and increased appropriately every five years thereafter. For context, about 284,000 passenger vehicles were sold in Ontario in 2015. Five per cent of annual sales on that number represent about 14,000 vehicles.”

“Maintain incentives for electric vehicles($140-160M): Ontario intends to extend the rebate program to 2020 for leasing or buying an eligible electric vehicle (up to $14,000 per vehicle), including rebates for purchase and installation of home charging stations (up to $1,000 per station).”

 “More charging stations($80M): The province intends to invest in the rapid deployment of charging in workplaces, multi-unit residential buildings, downtowns and town centres. Ontario will encourage ONroute locations to equip themselves with high-speed chargers. It will further encourage the federal government to invest in high speed, fast-charging infrastructure on inter-provincial highways and highways that connect Ontario to the United States.

 “Electric-vehicle-ready homes: Ontario intends to require all new homes and townhomes with garages to be constructed with a 50-amp, 240-volt receptacle (plug) in the garage for the purpose of charging an electric vehicle.

“Electric-vehicle-ready workplaces: Ontario intends to establish a requirement that, as of 2018, all newly built commercial office buildings and appropriate workplaces must provide charging infrastructure.”

“Commuter cycling: Ontario will revise provincial road and highway standards to require commuter cycling infrastructure be considered for all road and highway construction projects where it is safe and feasible. Ontario will do the same for major transit corridors.”

2. Heating Buildings

“Boost low-carbon technology in homes($500-600M): Ontario intends to help homeowners purchase and install low-carbon energy technologies such as geothermal heat pumps and air-source heat pumps, solar thermal and solar energy generation systems that reduce reliance on fossil fuels for space and water heating. This will include an increased benefit for low-income households and vulnerable communities.”

“Provide free energy audits for pre-sale homes($200-250M) Energy audits would be required before a new or existing single-family home can be listed for sale, and the energy rating will be included in the real estate listing.”

3. Land Use Planning

“Require electric vehicle charging in surface lots: Municipalities would be able to require installation of electric vehicle charging stations in surface parking areas.”

“Eliminate minimum parking requirements: Minimum parking requirements would be eliminated over the next five years for municipal zoning bylaws, especially in transit corridors and other high-density, highly walkable communities.” “Establish a Challenge Fund($250-300M): The government will establish a greenhouse gas pollution reduction challenge fund or program.”  

“Put climate change in official plans: The government intends to consult and propose amendments to the Planning Act to make climate change mitigation and adaptation mandatory in municipal official plans.”

4. R&D

"Create a Global Centre for Low Carbon Mobility($100-140M): Based at a post-secondary institution in Ontario, a Global Centre for Low Carbon Mobility will be set up to advise the government on low-carbon transportation, and to direct funding for research, development and low-carbon manufacturing. The Centre will focus on industry research and development needs and support development of low- and nocarbon transportation technology such as electric automated vehicles.”

5. Public Service

“Ontario will spend $160 billion over 12 years on public infrastructure, including $31.5 billion through the Moving Ontario Forward plan that invests in, for example, transit projects. Over the next five years, the OPS will lay the foundation to reach its new target of reducing emissions by 50 per cent below 2006 levels by 2030. These reductions will have the added benefit of reducing the cost to Ontarians of government operations.”

6. Agriculture

“($20-30M) reduce the amount of organic materials going into landfills, which would reduce emissions. Potential targets are 40 per cent of organics diverted by 2025 and 60 per cent by 2035.”

 “Increase tree planting($ 0.5-1.5M): Ontario will continue to support tree-planting programs, including its commitment to plant 50 million trees across the province by 2025.”

7. Reporting

“establishment of a Greenhouse Gas Reduction Account to track cap and trade proceeds and ensure they are invested in green projects and programs that reduce or support the reduction of greenhouse gas pollution.”

Related articles

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• What are the Provinces Doing to Decarbonize Canada's Energy Systems?
• Priorities Needed to Achieve a Low Carbon World
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What Must Farmers do to Meet Emission Targets?

Reducing emissions from agriculture to meet the 2°C target (19 page pdf, E. Wollenberg, M. Richards, P. Smith, P. Havlík, M. Obersteiner, F.N. Tubiello, M. Herold, P. Gerber, S. Carter, A. Reisinger, D. van Vuuren, A. Dickie, H. Neufeldt, B.O. Sander, R. Wassmann, R. Sommer, J.E. Amonette, A. Falcucci, M. Herrero, C. Opio, R. Roman-Cuesta, E. Stehfest, H. Westhoek, I. Ortiz-Monasterio, T. Sapkota, M.C. Rufino, P.K. Thornton, L. Verchot, P.C. West, J.-F. Soussana, T. Baedeker, M. Sadler, S. Vermeulen, B.M. Campbell, Global Change Biology, May 17, 2016)

Also discussed here: New study sets climate target for agriculture (IIASA News, May 17, 2016) 

Today we review an assessment of approaches voluntarily proposed by 119 nations as Nationally Determined Contributions for COP21 in Paris to mitigate non CO2 emissions from the agricultural sector. Currently available approaches would deliver as little as 21% of the mitigation required to meet the 2 Deg C goal by 2030. The authors call for a range of innovative methods including carbon pricing, sequestering soil carbon and shifting dietary patterns and breeding cattle to produce less methane. Although agriculture is rural, some cities such as Ottawa, Canada contain more farmland (40% of rural area or 300,000 acres) and so must face up to the challenges in reducing greenhouse gases in this sector, as well as in transportation and the heating and cooling of buildings- and make this part of urban climate action plans.

   

Key Quotes:

 “Agriculture (not including land use change) contributes an average of 35% of emissions in developing countries and 12% in developed countries today.”

“the agricultural sector must reduce non-CO₂ emissions by 1 billion metric tons per year in 2030, a 17% reduction compared to the reference level projections of about 5.8 GtCO₂eq…currently available interventions would only deliver between 21-40% of mitigation required as follows:

• Sustainable intensification of cattle
• Efficient use of water through alternate wetting and drying in irrigated rice
• Nutrient management for annual crops, including efficient use of nitrogen and manure
• Relocating production to increase input efficiency”

“Promising technical innovations on the horizon include recently developed methane inhibitors that reduce dairy cow emissions by 30% without affecting milk yields, breeds of cattle that produce lower methane, and varieties of cereal crops that release less nitrous oxide. ..more ambitious mitigation include introducing more rigorous carbon pricing, taxes and subsidies; … Focusing more attention on sequestering soil carbon, increasing agroforestry, decreasing food loss and waste and shifting dietary patterns “

 “international trade can bring a big potential for mitigation, by helping to encourage more production in the most efficient regions. However, without global targets for emissions reductions, decentralized approaches to climate mitigation could lead to inadequate pressure to decrease emissions from highly inefficient system such as those in Europe or North America”

Related articles

• Trees on Agricultural Lands on the Rise, Could Help Mitigate Climate Change in Developing Countries
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How Does Air Pollution Cause Hypertension and Heart Attacks?

English: Main complications of persistent high blood pressure. Sources are found in main article: Wikipedia:Hypertension#Complications. To discuss image, please see Template_talk:Häggström diagrams. To edit, please use the svg version, convert to png and update both versions online. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Associations of Short-Term and Long-Term Exposure to Ambient Air Pollutants With Hypertension A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis (16 page pdf, Yuanyuan Cai, Bo Zhang, Weixia Ke, Baixiang Feng, Hualiang Lin, Jianpeng Xiao, Weilin Zeng, Xing Li, Jun Tao, Zuyao Yang, Wenjun Ma, Tao Liu, Hypertension, Jun. 1, 2016) 

Also discussed here: High blood pressure linked to short-, long-term exposure to some air pollutants (Science Daily, May 31, 2016) 

Today we review a meta-analysis of the links between high blood pressure and hypertension which lead to the number one cause of death in the world, cardiovascular disease, with air pollutants for both short and long term exposure. Results indicate short term exposure ot particulate matter (PM2.5 and PM10) and sulphur dioxide (associated with diesel vehicle emissions and coal burning) as well as long term exposure to nitrogen dioxide and PM10 (associated with vehicle emissions) are linked to a higher risk of hypertension. The mechanisms that lead to hypertension include inflammation and oxidative stress from exposure to air pollutants as well as imbalance of the nervous system from particulates.

Key Quotes: 

 “Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of death in the world. It is responsible for ≈30% of all deaths or ≈17.5 million people in 2012” “We observed that short-term exposure to SO2, PM2.5, and PM10 and long-term exposure to NO2 and PM10 were associated with an increase in hypertension risk.”

 “Both short- and long-term exposure to some air pollutants commonly associated with coal burning, vehicle exhaust, airborne dust and dirt are associated with the development of high blood pressure” 

"People should limit their exposure on days with higher air pollution levels, especially for those with high blood pressure, even very short-term exposure can aggravate their conditions."

 “The mechanisms by which air pollution exposure could contribute to the development of hypertension might include systemic inflammation and oxidative stress, which may cause increased sympathetic tone and potentially lead to arterial remodeling.”

 “PM may also elevate blood pressure by inducing autonomic nervous system imbalance and vasoconstriction. In addition, PM exposure can also reduce daytime sodium excretion and blunt the normal nocturnal reduction in blood pressure. If this happens repeatedly, the impaired renal handling of excess sodium may partly contribute to elevated blood pressure”

 “Compared with PM10, PM2.5 can remain suspended for a longer time in the air and be inhaled into the respiratory tract and directly into the pulmonary alveoli.”

Related articles

• 7 Signs of High Blood Pressure and Stages of Hypertension
• Getting a grip on high blood pressure
• Links between Particulate Pollution, Diabetes and Heart Attack Risk
• Microspatial Hotspot Variability of Urban Air Pollution
• How Does Particulate Pollution Affect the Calcification of Arteries?

How do Special Interests Hold Back Progress on Climate Change?

Dislocated interests and climate change (5 page pdf, Steven J Davis and Noah Diffenbaugh, Environmental Research Letters, May 31, 2016)

Today we review a very pertinent analysis of costs and benefits as applied to climate impacts and national (and corporate) interests and how the concentration of short term, local benefits is separated in time and space with longer term impacts. As a concluding sentence in the article reads: “the most problematic dislocations of interests are where benefits are concentrated in time, space, and parties”. Often too, the profits from fossil fuels accrue to corporations in developed countries while the impacts fall mainly on developing countries and governments. Attempts to recover these costs get bogged down in a lack of international mechanisms to deal with them either through the World Trade Organization, World Bank or the International Framework on Climate Change and climate agreements, such as the Kyoto Protocol in 1997 or the Paris Agreement of 2015 – all of which point to the need for a greater definition and recognition of these special needs in addressing climate change.
 

Key Quotes:

“although these regions [in developing regions such as Africa, South America, southeast Asia, and the Middle East] are warming disproportionately, their role in causing climate change - measured by cumulative historical CO2 emissions produced - is small compared to the US and Europe, where the relative change in temperatures has been less…where their economies [are] using mostly fossil energy”

 “the delay between CO2 emissions and resultant climate warming separates past benefits from present impacts, just as current benefits are dislocated from future impacts”

“those receiving benefits from fossil energy or suffering impacts of climate change may be multinational corporations or national governments, whereas the impacts of climate change may fall most heavily on individual persons or local governments.”

• “Future impacts versus current benefits(Energy consumption)- The countries where future climatic changes are expected to be greatest also tend to be the countries where increases in energy consumption in the present will have the greatest marginal benefit to well-being, and ultimately to resilience to those climate impacts”
• “Future impacts versus current benefits(fossil fuel extraction): Some of the developing countries where future climatic changes are expected to be greatest have substantial capacity to benefit from additional extraction of fossil fuels today”
• “Future impacts versus current benefits(ability to pay)…some of the countries where future climatic changes are expected to be greatest also have the least capacity to tolerate the higher energy prices associated with a carbon tax or other climate policies”
• “Individual impacts versus corporate benefits. In many cases, special interests also benefit from regressive, politically entrenched fossil energy …while litigation against these companies may ultimately succeed in collecting damages and perhaps even hastening the decarbonization of the energy system, the irreversibile, globally-distributed impacts of climate change on natural ecosystems and generations of individuals will never be fully remedied”

Related articles

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How Does Particulate Pollution Affect the Calcification of Arteries?

English: Coronary circulation, with coronary arteries labeled in red text and other landmarks in blue text. This vector graphics image was originally created with Adobe Illustrator, and modified with Inkscape. 32px|alt=W3C|link=http://validator.w3.org/✓ The source code of this SVG is valid. Category:Valid SVG (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Association between air pollution and coronary artery calcification within six metropolitan areas in the USA (the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis and Air Pollution): a longitudinal cohort study (Abstract, 1 page pdf, Joel D Kaufman, Sara D Adar, R Graham Barr, Matthew Budoff, Gregory L Burke, Cynthia L Curl, Martha L Daviglus, Ana V Diez Roux, Amanda J Gassett, David R Jacobs Jr, Prof Richard Kronmal, Timothy V Larson, Ana Navas-Acien, Casey Olives, Paul D Sampson, Lianne Sheppard, David S Siscovick, James H Stein, Adam A Szpiro, Karol E Watson, The Lancet, May 24, 2016

Also discussed here: Decade-long study shows how air pollution is killing you (ZME Science, May 26, 2016)

Today we review research conducted over a decade on the biological impacts of traffic-related air pollution (PM2.5 and NOx) on the arteries which in turn results in a higher risk of heart attack.. Results indicate coronary calcium increased with increases in PM2.5 by 4.1 Agaston units/yr and in NOx by 4.8 Agaston units/yr. The authors suggest that increases in traffic related pollution especially in urban areas world-wide can be associated with increased cardiovascular diseases.  

Key Quotes:

“The study provides important new information on how pollution affects the main biological process that leads to heart disease,”

“The evidence supports worldwide efforts to reduce exposures to ambient air pollutants..This was the most in-depth study of air pollution exposures ever applied to a large study group specifically designed to examine influences on cardiovascular health,”

 “Increased concentrations of PM_2·5 and traffic-related air pollution within metropolitan areas, in ranges commonly encountered worldwide, are associated with progression in coronary calcification, consistent with acceleration of atherosclerosis.”

“for every 5 µg/m3 higher concentration of PM2.5 or 35 parts per billion higher concentration of oxides of nitrogen, participants had a 4 Agatston units/year faster rate of progression of coronary artery calcium scores.”

“in this population, coronary calcium increased on average by 24 Agatston units per year (SD 58), and intima-media thickness by 12 μm per year (10), before adjusting for risk factors or air pollutant exposures,”

Related articles

• High coronary calcium score may signal increased risk of cancer, kidney and lung disease
• Having Diabetes Increases The Risk of Dying From Heart Attack, Study Says
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• Air pollution linked to increased rates of kidney disease
• Millions of Air Pollution Deaths Can Be Avoided By 2040: Report
• Do Cholesterol Pills Reduce the Risk of Cardiovascular Disease from Exposure to Particulate Matter?
• How do Air Pollution and Climate Change affect the Risk of Heart Attacks?
• What is the Risk of a Stroke after a One Day Exposure to Air Pollution?

Links between Particulate Pollution, Diabetes and Heart Attack Risk

English: A graph of particulate pollution (PM 2.5 vs date) for sensors located in . The particulate pollution shows a seasonal variation. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

The Association Between Air Pollution Exposure and Glucose and Lipids Levels (8 page pdf, Maayan Yitshak Sade, Itai Kloog, Idit F. Liberty, Joel Schwartz, and Victor Novack, J Clin Endocrinol Metab, May 24, 2016) 

Also discussed here: Air pollution exposure may raise heart disease risk - Study found exposure linked to poorer blood sugar, cholesterol measures (ScienceDaily, May 24, 2016) 

Today we review research into the the side effects of exposure to particulate air pollutants regarding cardiovascular disease(the leading cause of death in the USA), blood glucose levels and cholesterol levels. Results indicate that even a higher exposure to air pollution in the preceding three months leads to higher glucose levels and even a small change in this leads to increased risk of heart attack. 

English: A graph of particulate pollution (PM 2.5 vs date) for sensors located in . The particulate pollution shows a seasonal variation. 

Key Quotes:

“Cardiovascular and lipid disorders are the leading cause of death in the United States.. the total cost of cardiovascular disease nationwide was $320.1 billion. The total includes direct costs of treatment as well as indirect costs such as lost productivity.”

“PM exposure is a major issue in countries located in desert areas. In Eastern Asia, the frequent dust events, which originate in the Chinese and Mongolian desert, in combination with the anthropogenic air pollution, have become a major concern for public health. Studies conducted in Asia has linked between dust exposure and asthma episodes, mortality, blood pressure, serumlipids, and glucose”.

 “The Negev region (Southern Israel) is located in the global dust belt, which extends from West Africa to the Arabian Desert.PM10 andPM2.5 concentrations in the area can reach extremely high levels”

"While air pollution is linked with relatively small changes in cardiometabolic risk factors, the continuous nature of exposure and the number of people affected gives us cause for concern…Even small changes in glucose levels and glycemic control can contribute to increased risk of cardiovascular disease."

 “The study found participants tended to have higher blood sugar levels and a poorer cholesterol profile when they were exposed to higher average levels of air particulates in the preceding three months compared to those exposed to lower levels of air pollutants. Particulate matter exposure was associated with increases in blood glucose, LDL cholesterol levels, and triglycerides, or fats in the blood. Exposure to particulate matter also was linked to lower levels of HDL, or "good," cholesterol.”

“"We found an association between air pollution exposure in the intermediate term and undesirable changes in cholesterol..This suggests that cumulative exposure to air pollution over the course of a lifetime could lead to elevated risk of cardiovascular disease."

 “We observed significant increase in glucose, HbA1c, LDL, and triglycerides and decrease in HDL levels, associated with increases of PM average concentrations in the 3 months preceding the test. The associations were more pronounced among patients with diabetes.”

Are Plug-In Hybrids the Best Option until Electric Cars Become More Common?

Going the Extra Mile - Intelligent Energy Management of Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles (6 page pdf, Kanok Boriboonsomsin, Guoyuan Wu, and Matthew Barth, ACCESS, University of California, May 2016)

Today we review some testing of energy management strategies to find the optimum use of the battery in a plug-in hybrid while minimizing the use of carbon fuel. This is in the context of the fact that electric cars are less than 1% of all cars in many parts of the USA and Canada and that in some regions of those countries (for example, California, Ontario, Quebec) electric power is produced from carbon free energy sources. Results indicate that if electric energy use is restricted to when the battery level is between 20 and 80% charged (such as in stop and go traffic or going downhill) then the fuel use is minimized. Overall gasoline consumption can be reduced by between 9 and 14% over what a normal hybrid electric car would achieve which in turn is twice as efficient as car that uses only gasoline. This is true if the power used to charge the battery some from renewable energy (hydro or nuclear).  

Key Quotes:

“While hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) rely on their internal combustion engines to recharge their batteries, PHEVs generally have larger batteries and can be recharged by plugging into an outside electricity source, such as a standard home outlet ...are potentially more efficient and cleaner than HEVs, in part because more of their energy can come from clean, renewable sources.”

 “The battery in a PHEV operates best at moderate levels of SOC and is less efficient at very low or very high levels of SOC. Therefore, PHEV energy management strategies tend not to leave the battery pack empty or charge it fully in order to help preserve the battery life.”

 “One …strategy is to run the PHEV solely on electric energy until its battery reaches a certain charge level, and then switch to gasoline for the rest of the trip. This strategy…may result in gasoline consumption where battery use is desirable (such as in stop-and-go traffic or while going down a steep hill)”

 “Our calculation for an example commute trip shows that the intelligent energy management strategy can reduce fuel consumption by between 9 and 14 percent. This corresponds to a fuel efficiency increase from 60 to between 65 and 70 miles per gallon of gasoline equivalent.”

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