Tuesday, June 14, 2016

What are the Best Incentives to Buy an Electric Car?

Incentives for promoting Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) adoption in Norway (12 page pdf, Kristin Ystmark Bjerkan, Tom E. Nørbech, Marianne Elvsaas Nordtømme, Transportation Research Part d 43, ScienceDirect, Jan. 14, 2016)

 Also discussed here: What are the most effective ways of promoting electric cars? (Science for Environment Policy, European Commission, Apr. 22, 2016)

Today we review research on which incentives are the most effective in selling battery electric (BEV) cars based on a survey of Norwegians. The survey analysis considered low and high income levels, the differing impacts of reduced (or subsidized) cost at purchase to ongoing costs and benefits such as exemption from tolls. The typical Norwegian owner of an e-car is male, aged 36-55, high income, university education and living in the capital (Oslo). The single biggest factor was the initial purchase price (with discounts), followed by (exemptions from) congestion or road pricing, followed by free access to bus lanes. This supports the tactics used by governments in countries, such as Canada, in offering significant discounts for new e-car purchases and less emphasis on using exemptions from road tolls (even though road pricing is much less used and there are far fewer electric cars on the road in this country compared to Norway).

 ecar incentives  

Key Quotes:

“Considering that 80% of increases in CO2 emissions the past 45 years have come from road transport … broad scale global introduction of electromobility is considered an important measure for reducing greenhouse gas emissions from the transport sector”

“Norway has become a global forerunner in the field of electromobility and the BEV market share is far higher than in any other country…. Seventy thousand BEVs are registered in Norway … accounting for approximately 18% of new car sales in 2015.”

 “Exemptions from purchase tax and VAT are critical incentives for more than 80% of the respondents…High purchase price is the strongest barrier toward EV purchase …and several studies find that up-front costs are more heavily emphasized than reductions in variable costs”

“Predominant incentives relate to tax or other economic benefits such as reduced/exempted parking fee or congestion charges, but in some instances also allow access to bus lanes or car pool lanes.”

“experts from five European countries rate 10 policy measures for EV adoption according to effectiveness, efficiency and feasibility. The experts’ cumulative ratings place exemption from road tolling or congestion charging in the middle-bracket in terms of effectiveness, while access to bus lanes is found at the bottom of the list.”

"The study also examines BEV users which respond to three categories of incentives:
(i) reduced fixed costs,
(ii) reduced use costs and
(iii) priority to infrastructure.
Analyses show that there are clear delineations between incentive groups, both in terms of age, gender, and education. Income is a less prominent predictor, which probably results from the competitive price of BEVs in the Norwegian market.”

Thursday, June 9, 2016

Real-Time Monitoring of Indoor Air Quality

Real-time sensors for indoor air monitoring and challenges ahead in deploying them to urban buildings (11 page pdf, Kumar, P, Skouloudis, AN, Bell, M, Viana, M, Carotta, M-C, Biskos, G and Morawska, L, Science of the Total Environment, Apr.6, 2016)

Also discussed here: Is your home harming you? New research highlights deadly effects of indoor pollution (ScienceDaily, Apr. 19, 2016)

And here: Indoor Air Quality Monitoring System for Smart Buildings (5 page pf, Xuxu Chen, Yu Zheng, Yubiao Chen, Qiwei Jin, Weiwei Sun, Eric Chang, Wei-Ying Ma

Today we review research into the need for and specifications for monitors to measure indoor air quality which accounts for more deaths globally (4.8 M deaths) than outdoor air quality (3.7 M) and is much less understood by people. People tend to use a number of products such as fragrances, cleaning products etc without being aware of the health risks. Electronic monitors are now available at low economic costs which allow for real-time monitoring at short intervals in ore to detect short spikes and at several locations within a house or building. Another related finding is that outdoor air pollution is highest near the intersection of major roads and as a result, buildings near this location also have higher levels of indoor air pollution- which has implications for the siting of schools, hospitals and offices.

 IAQ  

Key Quotes:

"When we think of the term 'air pollution' we tend to think of car exhausts or factory fumes expelling grey smoke. However, there are actually various sources of pollution that have a negative effect on air quality, many of which are found inside our homes and offices. From cooking residue to paints, varnishes and fungal spores the air we breathe indoors is often more polluted than that outside."

“In 2012 indoor air pollution was linked to 4.3 million deaths globally, compared with 3.7 million for outdoor air pollution….Household air pollution is ranked the 9th largest Global Burden of Disease risk”

 "Our work looks at the use of small, low-energy monitoring sensors that would be able to gather real-time data and tell families or workers when levels of pollutants are too high,"

“Typically, for compliance with ambient air quality regulations, measurements of carbon monoxide (CO), sulphur dioxide (SO2), ozone (O3), oxides of nitrogen (NO + NO2), benzene (C6H6) and VOCs, together with PM10 and PM2.5 are conducted”

“Perhaps even more fundamental, however, is the widespread lack of awareness of IAQ: ..not only that people are not aware of risks due to involuntary exposure to air .. but people tend to use fragrances, excessive cleaning products, candles for ambiance, and many other sources of indoor air pollutants, without understanding their contribution to IAQ problems.”

 “outdoor air pollution was at a high where buildings were located at traffic intersections. Even where there was low traffic volume, traffic intersections with densely built up surroundings showed twice the concentration than at open junctions.” “

"This has important implications for town planning and we should consider whether we really want schools, offices or hospitals to be built within these environments.”

Tuesday, June 7, 2016

Do Wind Turbines Really Impact the Health of Nearby Residents?

English: Taken by Neutronic
English: Taken by Neutronic (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Today we review research conducted in Denmark, the world’s leader in the use of wind turbines to generate electricity with over 39% of its power generated this way in 2014 and over 5,000 wind turbines located on or offshore. The purpose of the study was to assess the relationship between direct and indirect impacts on health of residents living near the turbines (mean distance to the closest turbine to a house was 2 km). Results indicate no significant relationship with turbine proximity and direct health effects, except for a significant indirect association with wind noise and annoyance, which is one of several “confounding” factors that may be caused other noise sources (such as nearby traffic or indoor odours resulting from less ventilation and fresh air with the windows closed to keep out the noise).


Key Quotes: 

“In Denmark, the world leader in total wind capacity per capita, wind power provided a record of 39.1% of Denmark's electricity consumption in 2014.” “Overall there were 5122 active on- and offshore wind turbines in Denmark. Of these, about 4717 were onshore and about 405 were offshore. A total of 219 on-shore wind turbines were sited in the studied rural regions.” 

"Whether or not wind turbines pose a risk to human health is a matter of heated debate. Personal reactions to other environmental exposures occurring in the same settings as wind turbines may be responsible of the reported symptoms” 

 “Symptoms reported by people who live in close proximity to wind turbines have been idiopathic symptoms, such as sleep disturbance, fatigue, nausea, dizziness, headache, and lack of concentration, as well as annoyance” 

 “After controlling for personal reactions to noise from sources different from wind turbines and agricultural odor exposure, we did not observe a significant relationship between residential proximity to wind turbines and symptoms and the parameter estimates were attenuated toward zero. Wind turbines-health associations can be confounded by personal reactions to other environmental co-exposures. Isolated associations reported in the literature may be due to confounding bias.” 

“The minimum distance between a residence and the closest wind turbine was 167 m and the maximum distance was 8983 m, while the mean and median of the distances to the closest wind turbine were 2052 m and 1712 m, respectively. The maximum number of wind turbines within 1000 m of each residence” 

“In our study we did find a significant association between residential proximity to wind turbines and wind turbine noise annoyance, but annoyance was not further associated with symptoms” 

 “Our study suggests that isolated associations between wind turbines exposures and health outcomes reported in the literature may be partly due to confounding bias”

Thursday, June 2, 2016

How Will Climate Change Affect the Health of Americans?

Executive Summary:The Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in the United States (24 page pdf, Crimmins, A., J. Balbus, J.L. Gamble, C.B. Beard, J.E. Bell, D. Dodgen, R.J. Eisen, N. Fann, M.D. Hawkins, S.C. Herring, L. Jantarasami, D.M. Mills, S. Saha, M.C. Sarofim, J. Trtanj, and L. Ziska, Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, Apr. 12, 2016)

Also discussed here: Full Report:The Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in the United States (312 pp,Crimmins, A., J. Balbus, J.L. Gamble, C.B. Beard, J.E. Bell, D. Dodgen, R.J. Eisen, N. Fann, M.D. Hawkins, S.C. Herring, L. Jantarasami, D.M. Mills, S. Saha, M.C. Sarofim, J. Trtanj, and L. Ziska, Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, Apr. 12, 2016)

Today we review a report that provide a comprehensive analysis of the impacts of climate change on health of Americans and an estimate of the risk they pose. These impacts come about in two ways: changing the severity and frequency of health impacts from the current weather and by creating threats to health in places that have not experienced them before. The specific impacts range from many more deaths from extreme heat especially form the elderly and children, to more air pollution from particulates form wildfires and from greater exposure to allergens to impacts from extreme events, such as flooding, drought and wildfires to mental distress and trauma (PTSD) for people experiencing these extreme events.

 cl impacts USA  

Key Quotes:

“we have observed climate-related increases in our exposure to elevated temperatures; more frequent, severe, or longer-lasting extreme events; degraded air quality; diseases transmitted through food, water, and disease vectors (such as ticks and mosquitoes); and stresses to our mental health and well-being.”

“Climate change can therefore affect human health in two main ways: first, by changing the severity or frequency of health problems that are already affected by climate or weather factors; and second, by creating unprecedented or unanticipated health problems or health threats in places where they have not previ­ously occurred.”

 Some Findings:
  •  “an increase of thousands to tens of thousands of premature heat-related deaths in the summer ... and a decrease of premature cold-related deaths in the winter …. are projected each year as a result of climate change by the end of the century.” 
  •  “An increase in population tolerance to extreme heat has been observed over time … Expected future increases in this tolerance will reduce the projected increase in deaths from heat” 
  •  “Older adults and children have a higher risk of dying or becoming ill due to extreme heat” “climate-driven increases in ozone will cause premature deaths, hospital visits, lost school days, and acute respiratory symptoms” 
  • “Climate change is projected to increase the number and severity of naturally occurring wildfires in parts of the United States, increasing emissions of particulate matter and ozone precursors and resulting in additional adverse health outcomes” 
  • “Changes in climate, … are expected to contribute to increases in the levels of some airborne allergens and associated increases in asthma episodes” “Climate change will increase exposure risk in some regions of the United States due to projected increases in the frequency and/or intensity of drought, wildfires, and flooding” 
  • “Many types of extreme events related to climate change cause disruption of infrastructure” 
  • “Climate change will increase exposure risk to coastal flooding” “Longer seasonal activity and expanding geographic range of these ticks [Lyme disease]will increase the risk of human exposure to ticks” 
  •  “Alterations in the distribution, abundance, and infection rate of mosquitoes will influence human exposure to bites from infected mosquitoes” “Increases in water temperatures associated with climate change will alter the seasonal windows of growth and the geographic range of suitable habitat for freshwater toxin-producing harmful algae” 
  • “Rising carbon dioxide concentrations and climate change will alter incidence and distribution of pests, parasites, and microbes” 
  • “Many people exposed to climate-related or weather-related disasters experience stress and serious mental health consequences….these consequences include post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), depression, and general anxiety 
  • “Increases in extreme heat will increase the risk of disease and death for people with mental illness”

Tuesday, May 31, 2016

What is the Social Cost of Climate Change?

Expert Consensus on the Economics of Climate Change (41 page pdf, Peter Howard and Derek Sylvan, Institute for Policy Integrity, New York University School of Law, Dec. 2015)

 Today we review a survey of 365 leading economists from around the world on the economic and social impacts of climate change and how they expect this cost will grow in the future. Most believed that there will net negative global impacts by 2025, hitting agriculture, fishing, utilities (electricity, water, sanitation), forestry, tourism/outdoor recreation, insurance, and health services. The social cost was projected to start at $100/metric ton in 2015, rising to above $300/ton in 2050 and this cost was suggested as a basis for carbon pricing to reduce emissions which most thought should be above $37/ton to start. Currently in Canada, the highest price put on carbon is in British Columbia at $30/ton (and frozen at that level for the last 3 years) with some provinces (Quebec, Ontario, Alberta) setting it between $10 and 15/ton, leaving others with no price (Saskatchewan, Manitoba and the Atlantic provinces).

  social cost by year from cl ch  

Key Quotes:

Some key findings:
  • “experts believe that climate change will begin to have a net negative impact on the global economy very soon – the median estimate was by 2025”
  • ”A majority predicted negative impacts on agriculture (94%), fishing (78%), utilities (electricity, water, sanitation – 74%), forestry (73%), tourism/outdoor recreation (72%), insurance (66%), and health services (54%)”
  • ”three-quarters of respondents believe that climate change will have a long-term, negative impact on the growth rate of the global economy”

Thursday, May 26, 2016

How Much do Computers Contribute to Climate Warming?

The bitcoin logo
The bitcoin logo (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
The dirty parts of the computing world (Nathan Ensmenger, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Apr. 11, 2016)

 Today we review as assessment of the degree to which computers and computer networks contribute to or pollute with energy use, water consumption, mining and e-waste. In all four categories computer technology plays a significant role with 2 of global electricity use, and 25 tons of e-waste from Western countries alone. A typical desktop computer uses 30% more energy than the standard refrigerator. The computational output from Bitcoin is 256 times the combined capacity of the world’s 500 top supercomputers. In many countries, energy is produced from fuels such as coal and natural gas which produce carbon emissions. Clearly computers should be part of the accounting of the world’s energy, waste and water tallies.  

Key Quotes:

“Places such as Google, Amazon, Netflix, and Microsoft have facilities much larger than CERN’s, which they use for taking on even bigger volumes of high-throughput computing jobs.. Data centers contain the machines that do the actual work behind such activities as shopping online, booking the world’s hotel and automobile reservations, transmitting movies down fiber optic lines, emailing, storing photos, putting up people’s billions of Facebook posts”

“It seems that much of our shiny, white, iPad economy—promoted so heavily as environmentally friendly—actually runs on dirty black coal.”  

four aspects of the online economy:
  1. energy use -” data centers alone account for almost 2 percent of all global electricity use, and this use is projected to increase by at least 12 percent annually.. if the Cloud were a country, it would rank sixth overall in national energy consumption, behind the United States, China, Russia, India, and Japan—but well ahead of Germany, Canada, Brazil, and France” 'The energy burden of a desktop computer, for example, is 1.3 times that of a refrigerator. The total amount of fossil fuels used to make one desktop computer weighs over 240 kilograms, or about 520 pounds" 
  2.  water consumption “Cooling even a medium-size high-density server farm can require as much as 360,000 gallons of water (1,362,748 liters) per day.” 
  3. mining of the materials needed for the global digital economy. “Many of the rare earth elements crucial to both high-tech mobile devices and renewable energy technologies are controlled almost entirely by China, and are found only as by-products of traditional extractive industries.  
  4. e-waste “Western nations alone account for more than 25 million tons of e-waste every year, and the disposal of this waste—often in less environmentally regulated regions of the developing world—introduces into the environment such dangerous contaminants as lead, antimony, mercury, cadmium, and nickel, as well as polybrominated diphenyl ethers and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs)” “Bitcoin’s worldwide computational output is closing on on 200 exaflops—or, to put it another way, 256 times the combined capacity of the world’s top 500 supercomputers,”

Tuesday, May 24, 2016

When Will the Corner Gas Station Disappear?

End Of Gas Stations III: Coming To A Corner Near You (Walker Angell , Streets.mn, Apr.8, 2016)

Today we review a forward looking article that predicts, on the basis of recent sales of electric vehicles and longer range because of battery technology improvements, that this may well be the last decade that we see, let alone buy an internal combustion engine vehicle. Several car manufacturers are already planning on major increased production of BEVs [battery electric vehicles] by 2020 and the market share of these vehicles has been increasing by 60% per year in recent years. Further, as battery efficiency continues fewer people will buy hybrid cars, preferring to jump to all electric with greater ranges. On the horizon this will have a major and positive impact on urban air quality.

 gas station  

Key Quotes:

 “Tesla expects to be producing 500,000 battery electric vehicles (BEVs) per year by 2020.. Volvo expects 10% of their global sales in 2020 to be BEVs and much of the rest to be plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs)”

“Worldwide PEV[all plug-in EVs] market share has increased by over 60% each of the past 3 years and this is expected to continue.”

 “Battery costs per kWh are falling about 35% each year and the electric range of all PEVs is increasing”

“Those who have ever driven electrically are lost for the internal combustion engine for all time.” “Bloomberg are predicting that there could be an oil crisis by 2023, compliments of increasing numbers of PEVs reducing gas consumption, leading to the bottom falling out of the oil markets”

“the average car lasts about 11.4 years, so it will take some time to replace all of them (and 15- to 20-year-old cars aren’t unusual).”

“The vacating of gas stations and other ICE[internal combustion engine] -specific services will be one more element, and a major one, in the reshaping of land and space use that will happen in our communities over the next few years.”