What are the Health Impacts from Roadside Emissions while Reducing Greenhouse Gases?

Near-Roadway Air Pollution and Coronary Heart Disease: Burden of Disease and Potential Impact of a Greenhouse Gas Reduction Strategy in Southern California (8 page pdf, Rakesh Ghosh, Frederick Lurmann, Laura Perez, Bryan Penfold, Sylvia Brandt, John Wilson, Meredith Milet, Nino Künzli, and Rob McConnell, Environmental Health Perspectives, Feb. 1, 2016)

Today we review research into the impact of roadside emissions for people living near (within 50 m) of major highways in Southern California. While various policies have been put in place recently and into the future to reduce PM2.5 and greenhouse gas emissions, this study concentrated on the specific health impacts from roadside gases as they affect coronary heart disease. Results indicate that although emissions have lessened that more and more people live closer to the highways so that the health impacts become greater. Several options are suggested to alleviate this including a switch to zero emission electric vehicles and putting a buffer between the highways and residential areas.

   

Key Quotes:

“Emerging evidence suggests a causal link between near-roadway air pollution (NRAP) and coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality and morbidity”

“The total SoCAB [California’s South Coast Air Basin ] population was 15.5 million in 2008 and is projected to increase by approximately 3 million in 2035. However, the proportion ≥ 45 years at risk for CHD is expected to increase from 35% in 2008 to 43% in 2035”

“the proportion of the population living within 150m from a freeway or 50m from a major road is expected to increase from 8.3% to 10.9% from 2008 to 2035 “

“The overall pattern of changing exposure and NRAP-attributable CHD was generally similar across all SoCAB counties. Traffic density and EC levels were highest in Los Angeles County and lowest in Riverside County and are projected to decrease in all four counties from 2008 to 2035.”

“In contrast, the proportion living near a major road is projected to increase in all counties during the same period.”

“Estimates of the 2008 preventable CHD mortality due to NRAP among the ≥45 years population in the SoCAB varied from 2.4% (430 deaths), based on effects of residential proximity to a major road, to 6.8% (1,300 deaths), based on emissions-weighted traffic density”

 “The 2035 greenhouse gas reduction–planning scenario is projected to result in reduced population exposure and reduced PAF for PM 2.5, traffic density, and EC (but not for residential proximity to major roadways)”

 “if this planning scenario increases the population exposed to NRAP by placing people closer to busy roadways, they may be put at increased CHD risk, unless vehicle emissions were to decrease more substantially than currently anticipated”

"Variants on the planning scenario, such as policies to develop a zero- or close-to-zero-emission vehicle fleet, could optimize health co-benefits of greenhouse gas reduction. Another approach might be to encourage buffers between major traffic corridors and high-density development through zoning and other land use policies. “

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Monitoring China’s Air Pollution from Space

Satellite-Based Spatiotemporal Trends in PM2.5 Concentrations: China, 2004–2013 (9 page pdf, Zongwei Ma, Xuefei Hu, Andrew M. Sayer, Robert Levy, Qiang Zhang, Yingang Xue, Shilu Tong, Jun Bi, Lei Huang,and Yang Liu, Environmental Health Perspectives, Feb. 1, 2016)

Also discussed here: A Clearer Picture of China’s Air (1 page pdf, Nate Seltenrich, Environmental Health Perspectives, Feb.1, 2016)

Today we review measurements of PM 2.5 for China, derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and the higher resolution (10 km) MODIS C6 DB AOD data, merged with the sparse ground network data from 2004 to 2013. During that time, the concentration levels of PM2.5 first increased to 2007 and then decreased from 2008 to 2013 except in the central east area of the country (near Beijing) as a result of policy decisions by the government to reduce PM 2.5 emissions. The time series of estimated data also indicated a maximum concentration in winter and a minimum in summer. The research demonstrates the value of satellite measurements to augment and extend surface networks.

   

Key Quotes:

 “a nation - wide regulatory PM2.5 monitoring network did not exist until the end of 2012.”

“his study adopted a relatively coarse spatial resolution of 50km but did not attempt to estimate historical PM 2.5 levels. The coarse resolution was a result of the limited coverage of AOD values retrieved by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS; http://modis.gsfc.nasa.gov) instruments aboard the Terra and Aqua satellites launched by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)”

“The overall mean PM 2.5 concentration was 77.05 μg/m3, and the mean value of our combined AOD was 0.69 “

“The seasonal patterns showed that the most polluted season was winter and the cleanest was summer, consistent with the results of our previous study”

“the overall regional trends are consistent with the environmental policy and regulation change in China. We found an inflection point for the monthly mean PM2.5 time series around 2008. The PM2.5 level increased steadily between 2004 and 2007, but the trend reversed or became non-significant after 2008, especially in the Beijing-Tianjin metropolitan region.”

“The two-stage satellite AOD model developed in the present study generated reliable historical monthly and seasonal PM2.5 predictions for China at 10-km resolution and with little bias, including data from the past decade, when the regulatory PM2.5 monitoring network did not exist.”

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Preterm Births and Exposure to Urban Air Pollution

Exposure to airborne particulate matter during pregnancy is associated with preterm birth: a population-based cohort study ( 8 page pdf, Emily DeFranco, William Moravec, Fan Xu, Eric Hall, Monir Hossain, Erin N. Haynes, Louis Muglia and Aimin Chen, Environmental Health, Jan. 15 2016)

Also discussed here: Exposure to high levels of air pollution associated with higher risk of preterm birth (ScienceDaily. Jan. 26, 206)

Today we review research into the link between preterm births and exposure during pregnancy to Particuate Matter (PM2.5) in an urban environment. Results indicate a 19% overall increased risk with the greatest risk during the 3rd trimester of pregnancy (prior to the 37th week) Dropping PM2.5 levels to below the EPA standard of 15μg/m3 could result in a 17% improvement in the frequency of preterm births.

   

Key Quotes:

“The study… identified a 19 percent increased risk, with the greatest risk when high exposure occurred during the third trimester of pregnancy.”

"Although the risk increase is modest, the potential impact is robust, as all pregnant women are potentially at risk,"

"We estimate that decreasing the amount of particulate matter in the air below the EPA's standard threshold could decrease preterm birth in women exposed to high levels of small particulates by about 17 percent, which corresponds to a 2.22 percent decrease in the preterm birth rate in the population as a whole."

“Preterm birth rates were higher among mothers exposed to high levels of airborne particle pollution above the EPA standard, as well as among mothers 40 or older, black mothers, and women with no prenatal care or with lower education level.”

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How Much Coal, Gas and Coal Must be Kept Unused to Limit Global Warming to 2 deg C?

The geographical distribution of fossil fuels unused when limiting global warming to 2 °C (Abstract, Christophe McGlade & Paul Ekins, Nature. Jan.8, 2016)

Also discussed here: Keep It in the Ground (36 page pdf, Sierra Club, Greenpeace, 350.org, Jan. 2016)

And here: Meeting two degree climate target means 80 per cent of world’s coal is “unburnable”, study says (Carbon Brief, Jan. 7, 2015)

Today we review a report commissioned by several environmental activist groups that examines the extent to which the remaining coal, gas and oil reserves would threaten the UN’s target to keep warming from greenhouse gases to below 2 deg C. The major threats come from the USA from fracking and oil, Australia from coal and from Canada with tar sands as well as from Russia, the Mid-East and China. Globally 1/3 of the oil reserves, ½ of the gas reserves and 80% of the coal reserves must remain unused between now and 2050 in order to reach the goal.

   

Key Quotes:

“It has been estimated that to have at least a 50 per cent chance of keeping warming below 2 °C throughout the twenty-first century, the cumulative carbon emissions between 2011 and 2050 need to be limited to around 1,100 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide (Gt CO2)”

“Carbon Tracker estimates current known global fossil fuel reserves at 2795 Gt CO2, while other research suggests the figure is closer to 2900 Gt CO2.”

 “in order to stave off catastrophic climate change, the overwhelming majority of the large coal reserves in China, Russia and the United States as well as more than 260 billion barrels of oil reserves and 60 percent of gas reserves in the Middle East must all remain unused.”

“Coal mining expansion in Australia could add a total of 36 Gt of CO2 equivalent to the atmosphere between 2013 and 2050. There are more than 60 coal mining projects in New South Wales and Queensland, with a targeted coal output of approximately 450 to 500 million metric tons per year, excluding projects that have been abandoned or shelved”

“By 2020, Canada’s tar sands projects are expected to add 420 million metric tons of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere each year, a rate equivalent to the entire annual emissions of Saudi Arabia. … production of oil from the tar sands in Alberta is forecast to triple from 1.5 to 4.5 million barrels a day by 2035, adding 706 million metric tons of carbon dioxide a year to worldwide emissions.”

“Between 2013 and 2050, the United States is expected to emit a cumulative total of 34 Gt of CO2 equivalent emissions from shale gas and tight oil expansion.”

“India’s current per capita CO2 emissions are low, at only 1.7 tons per person, compared to China, at 6.9 tons and the United States at 17 tons.”

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How Does Global Climate Warming Look Locally?

Regional estimates of the transient climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions (Abstract, Martin Leduc, H. Damon Matthews & Ramón de Elía, Nature Climate Change, Jan.4, 016)

Also discussed here: Impact of human activity on local climate mapped (Science Daily, Jan. 20, 2016)

Today we review research that examines the projected climate warming using 12 model runs from cumulative carbon emissions from pre-industrial levels to four times those emissions on different regions of the world. Not unexpectedly, temperatures increase the most in polar regions (more than 5 deg C per trillion tons of emissions) than in low latitude areas and more over land (1.3 deg C) than over oceans (less than 1 deg C). The influence of ice albedo and ocean circulation caused warming that was linear than in land areas far from ice. This approach offers much in the assessment of future climate impacts on a regional or locals scale.



 

Key Quotes:

"a map that shows how the climate changes in response to cumulative carbon emissions around the world. They found that temperature increases in most parts of the world respond linearly to cumulative emissions…the results of simulations in which CO2 emissions caused the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere to increase by 1 per cent each year until it reached four times the levels recorded prior to the Industrial Revolution. “

"Globally, the researchers saw an average temperature increase of 1.7 ±0.4°C per trillion tonnes of carbon in CO2 emissions”

"As these numbers show, equatorial regions warm the slowest, while the Arctic warms the fastest. Of course, this is what we've already seen happen -- rapid changes in the Arctic are outpacing the rest of the planet,"

"This provides a simple and powerful link between total global emissions of carbon dioxide and local climate warming. This approach can be used to show how much human emissions are to blame for local changes."

"To date, humans have emitted almost 600 billion tonnes of carbon. This means that land areas on average have already warmed by 1.3°C because of these emissions. At current emission rates, we will have emitted enough CO¬2 to warm land areas by 2°C within 3 decades."

 “high-latitude ocean regions deviate more strongly from linearity as compared to land and lower-latitude oceans. This suggests that ice-albedo and ocean circulation feedbacks are important contributors to the overall negative deviation from linearity of the global temperature response to high levels of cumulative emissions.”

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How Big is the Global Stranded Carbon Assets Problem?

The tragedy of the horizon (John Lorinc, Corporate Knights, Jan. 19, 2016)

Also discussed here: The $2 trillion stranded assets danger zone: How fossil fuel firms risk destroying investor returns (32 page pdf, Carbon Tracker, Nov. 2015)

Today we review a speech by the former Governor of the Ban of Canada (currently Governor for the Bank of England) given just before the Climate Conference in Paris and a report by Carbon Tracker which defined what oil, gas and coal resources must be left in the ground if the atmospheric CO2 has to be kept below 450 ppm which is equivalent to keeping the rise of global temperatures to less than 2 deg C. The best estimates are that between a fifth to one third of existing carbon reserves must be kept in the ground with most attention to coal then oil then natural gas. The Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) “solution” (which is hyped by politicians, especially in Canada, adverse to restricting oil production) is not seen as having a significant role until 2050 or later- when action between now and 2050 is the critical period to reduce CO2 emissions, confirmed by the conclusions and agreement at Paris. Put in banking terms, the total value of stranded assets could be over $100 trillion. The other reality is that when the market discovers that there is no future for carbon fuels beyond the short term, the prices and intrinsic value of equities in these markets will be “re-priced”- which is what gets the attention of people like Carney.

   

Key Quotes:

 “According to the London-based group, the only way to limit global temperature increases to 2 C is to leave vast fossil fuel reserves in the ground – a scenario that could have cascading implications for not just the global energy sector but the investors and governments banking on future profits from those assets.”

 “Carney challenged his audience to ponder the “tragedy of the horizon.” The long-term economic reality, he said, is that only about a fifth to a third of proven fossil fuel reserves can be burned if temperatures are to stay within two degrees of pre-industrial levels.”

“If that estimate is even approximately correct, it would render the vast majority of reserves ‘stranded’ – oil, gas and coal that will be literally unburnable without expensive carbon capture technology, which itself alters fossil fuel economics.”

“It is clear that oil represents around two-thirds of the financial risk but a fifth of the carbon risk, whilst coal carries around half of the carbon risk, but only a tenth of the financial risk. Gas is low in terms of the carbon risk, but still carries around a quarter of the financial risk”

 “The IEA’s 450 scenario indicates around 24 GtCO² being captured by CCS (carbon capture and storage] by 2035, which we have allowed for in our demand projections. This is equivalent to extending the complete IEA 450 scenario carbon budget by 4% to 2035. CCS may yet have a significant contribution to make – but not until post-2050.”

 “oil, gas and coal sectors have proposed $1.9 trillion in capital investments to access known reserves through 2035. If tapped, the emissions would exhaust the remaining carbon “budget” for the century – i.e., the total amount of fossil fuel that could be burned before the temperature noses above that 2 C threshold. But those investments are directed to extracting only about a fifth of all identified fossil fuel reserves.” “

“We estimate that the total value of stranded assets could be over $100 trillion based on current market prices,”

““Of course Poloz [current Governor of Bank of Canada] should be honest with Canadians about the fact that emissions may be priced soon globally, and when that happens many assets in Canada, in particular those invested in the extraction of oil from bituminous sand, will be stranded, And I’m not sure he should be discussing it, but he should be aware that asset valuations can shift suddenly as perceptions change”

 “markets will re-price these assets once investors know whether those future oil fields in Alaska or other hotspots will ever be able to produce.”

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What Toxic Metals Come out of the Catalytic Converters on Car Mufflers?

Analysis of model Pd- and Pt-containing contaminants in aqueous media using ESI-MS and the fragment partitioning approach (Abstract, Leonid V. Romashov, Gleb D. Rukhovichb and Valentine P. Ananikov, RSC Advances, Institute of Organic Chemistry, Russian Academy of Sciences, Dec. 7, 2015)

Also discussed here: What happens with the environment when your car moves? (ScienceDaily. Jan.13 2016)

Today we review research from Russia into the inadvertent release of toxic metals from catalytic converters (or autocatalyst as it is termed here) which convert exhaust gases such as NOx, CO and other dangerous compounds to CO2, water and nitrogen. However, contact with water leaches the precious metals such as paladium, platinum and rhodium into toxic clusters – how toxic must be evaluated in the future but may put into question the role of the converters.

Key Quotes:

“Carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, hydrocarbons and other dangerous compounds are contained in the exhaustive gas mixture”

“every modern car is equipped with autocatalyst, which converts exhaustive gases to non-toxic water, nitrogen and carbon dioxide. The operation of autocatalyst is based on the catalytic reaction, which takes place on the surface of precious metals, namely palladium, platinum and rhodium.”

“contact with water facilitates simple platinum and palladium salts to aggregate into various clusters -- chemical species, which contain more than one metal atom. It is an important observation, since toxicity of clusters can significantly exceed toxicity of simple salts. Therefore, eco-toxicological danger of environmental pollution by heavy metals should become a crucial topic nowadays.”

“The unavoidable release of transition metal species to the environment and their contact with water give rise to the poisoning of ecosystems by heavy metal compounds”

“The study has revealed a critical danger of metal contamination due to easy formation of transition metal clusters, which may be much more toxic than corresponding monometallic complexes.”

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