How Are Two Waterlocked Cities (Hong Kong and Ottawa) Coping with Traffic Congestion?

Report on Study of Road Traffic Congestion in Hong Kong (124 page pdf, Transport Advisory Committee, Dec. 2014)

Also discussed here: Hong Kong report proposes electronic road pricing (Road pricing, Feb. 19, 2015)

And here: Segregated Bike Lane Pilot Project (City of Ottawa)

And here: Feasibility Study for a Downtown Ottawa Truck Tunnel (City of Ottawa)

And here: Premier Wynne, MP Galipeau and Mayor Watson tour progress of Confederation Line tunnel (City of Ottawa, Aug. 11, 2014)

And here: How Congested with Traffic are Canadian Cities? (Pollution Free Cities, Jul. 7, 2014)

And here: Is It Time for Congestion Pricing in Canada’s Capital? (Pollution Free Cities, Mar. 22, 2013)

Today we review a comprehensive report by authorities in Hong Kong on measures that could be taken in the short and long term to ease traffic congestion which is having major impacts on economic activity by slowing mobility and as well as to the air quality of this large city where the number of vehicles has increased by 30% over the last decade to almost 700,000 while average vehicle speed has slowed by 11% to 22 kph in the urban area. One of the first steps taken by the working group was a poll of public views on the causes for the congestion – the top three according to a majority of those polled were: too many vehicles on roads, too much road work and illegal parking. The measures recommended included ones to strengthen public transit (by offering more options for pedestrians), ones to discourage traffic interruptions by illegal parking and by tourist buses, trucks or vans operating at rush hour (by giving more enforcement powers to police) and ones to reduce the number of cars on the roads by a electronic road charging system. The Hong Kong authorities also are constructing a tunneled bypass highway as an option to the roads being considered for tolling.

Many of the causes identified for congestion and the options being considered are, to this reviewer, very similar to conditions in Canada’s national capital. Although different in many ways, Hong Kong and Ottawa have similarities, especially in terms of high traffic volumes and pollution hot spots and the fact that both urban cores are surrounded by water and so are not able to expand to accommodate more and more traffic. Vancouver, British Columbia is another city almost entirely surrounded by water which has managed to overcome some of the congestion problems that hamper Ottawa and Hong Kong- not allowing a freeway through its centre and providing mobility options being some of its major accomplishments to lead the list of world cities with the highest environmental quality and quality of life. Singapore is another example of a waterlocked city that attacked its traffic congestion with electronic road tolling and was one of the first in the world to do that successfully (as is being recommended for Hong Kong).

Ottawa, like Hong Kong, has more than 600,000 registered vehicles on the road converging each day into the smallest Central Business District of any large city in the country and major road works (a downtown town tunnel to remove heavily polluting diesel trucks from city streets and a second tunnel for Light Rail Transit) are underway in the core which is guaranteed to disrupt traffic further. Recent feeble efforts to accommodate pedestrians, such as a pedestrian bridge over the canal (one done, another planned) and to offer some protection for cyclists with an 8 block segregated/curbed bike lane through the downtown core need to be expanded, along with improvements in non-polluting public transit for the whole city (now planned for 2030). A close read of the Hong Kong report by Ottawa city transportation planners is warranted.

   

Key Quotes:

“Recurrent causes of road congestion:

“(a) limited scope for more road transport infrastructure; (b) excessive number of vehicles; (c) competing use of road space; (d) management and enforcement issues; and (e) road works.”

“The number of total licensed vehicles grew by about 30% from about 524 000 in 2003 to about 681 000 in 2013, with an annual growth rate of 3.4% in recent years. The larger the vehicle fleet size, the slower the car journey speed in the urban areas.. During the same period, the average car journey speed in urban areas dropped by about 11% from 25.6 km/h in 2003 to 22.7 km/h in 2013”

“Government has put in place measures to promote non-mechanised means to commute, e.g. through building hillside escalators and improving pedestrian facilities to enhance walkability and connectivity.”

“Motor vehicles are the main source of air pollutants at street level and the second largest source of greenhouse gas emissions in Hong Kong.”

 “if we do nothing now, with an assumption that the current PC growth rate of about 4.5% p.a. is to continue, it is estimated that the average journey speed in urban areas would be decreased by about 15% in 10 years’ time, with the amount of greenhouse gases generated increased by more than 20%.”

 "Recommendations:
Short-Medium Term

A. Managing the PC fleet size
• Raise PC’s First Registration Tax and Annual Licence Fee Tighten up standards for EFPPCs <Environment-friendly Petrol Private Cars>
 • Raise “fuel levy” for diesel PCs

B. Efficient use of limited road space
• Start planning for a congestion charging pilot scheme
• Increase meter parking charges(The maximum fee for metered parking is $2 per 15 minutes (equivalent to $8 per hour)

C. Stringent penalty and enforcement of traffic offences
• enhance publicity and education efforts to promote compliance with traffic rules and regulations raise the fixed penalty charges for congestion-related offences to restore the deterrent effect (current fixed penalty charges are set at $320 or $450 for congestion-related offences, such as illegal parking
• adopt a stricter approach and deploy more resources to enforce congestion-related offences by the Police • make further use of information technology in enforcement Long-term measures
 * Review parking policy and disseminate real-time information on parkingVacancies
* Encourage on-street loading and unloading outside peak hours
* Provide more park-and-ride facilities"

Related articles

• A showdown in Hong Kong - and a foreign policy problem for Harper
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• Where is the World's Most Polluted City - Delhi or Beijing?
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• How Congested with Traffic are Canadian Cities?

Monitoring Air Pollution Exposure with a Smart Phone

Variability in and Agreement between Modeled and Personal Continuously Measured Black Carbon Levels Using Novel Smartphone and Sensor Technologies (Abstract, Mark J. Nieuwenhuijsen, David Donaire-Gonzalez, Ioar Rivas, Montserrat de Castro, Marta Cirach, Gerard Hoek, Edmund Seto, Michael Jerrett, Jordi Sunyer, Environmental Science & Technology, Feb, 2015)

Also discussed here: Turning smartphones into personal, real-time pollution monitors (ScienceDaily. ScienceDaily, Feb.18, 2015)

Today we review an article that describes a project at Barcelona in southern Spain involving the monitoring of exposure by 50 children from 29 schools using a smart phone and a sensor to measure black carbon during the day- at home, commuting to school and in school. While only 4% of their time was spent commuting, exposure was 13% of the daily total and this also had the highest levels while the levels at home were the lowest.

   

Key Quotes:

“For 2 typical week days during 2012–2013, the children were given a smartphone with CalFit software to obtain information on their location and physical activity level and a small sensor, the micro-aethalometer model AE51, to measure their black carbon levels simultaneously and continuously”

“Although most children spent less than 4 percent of their day traveling to and from school, commuting contributed to 13 percent of their total potential black carbon exposure.”

“We found considerable variation in the black carbon levels during the day, with the highest levels measured during commuting periods (geometric mean = 2.8 μg/m3) and the lowest levels at home (geometric mean = 1.3 μg/m3)”

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• Turning smartphones into personal, real-time pollution-location monitors
• Green Column: Experimenting at Home With Air Quality Monitors
• How Can Smart Phones Measure Exposure to Air Pollution?
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• How Do Smart Phones Affect Car Use, Street Networks and Urban Design?
• Another Use of SmartPhones to Monitor Traffic-Related Air Pollution (TRAP)

Where is the World’s Most Polluted City – Delhi or Beijing?

Delhi Wakes Up to an Air Pollution Problem It Cannot Ignore (Gardiner Harris, New York Times, Feb. 14, 2015)

Also discussed here: Mr. President, World’s Worst Air Is Taking 6 Hours Off Your Life (Natalie Obiko Pearson, Bloomberg, Jan. 26, 2015)

Today we review several articles about the state of air pollution in Delhi, India which is 15 times higher (153 micrograms per cubic meter) than the maximum level recommended by the World Health Organization. Not only is the air pollution poorer in Delhi than in Beijing but it is monitored at only 4 locations compared to more than 30 in Beijing. President Obama’s exposure to Delhi’s pollution (average 76 to 84 micrograms per cubic meter) during his recent 3 day visit may have reduced his life expectancy by 6 hours.

 

Key Quotes: 

“Delhi has the world’s highest levels of PM2.5 -- tiny, toxic particles that lead to respiratory diseases, lung cancer and heart attacks. The Indian capital averaged 153 micrograms per cubic meter in 2013, the World Health Organization said in May, citing government data. That’s 15 times more than the average annual exposure recommended by the WHO.”

“India as a whole is home to 11 of the top 20 cities on the planet with the worst air quality, according to data from the WHO, which collected pollution levels from 1,600 metropolitan areas between 2008 to 2013”

“Already, an estimated 1.5 million people die annually in India, about one-sixth of all Indian deaths, as a result of both outdoor and the indoor air pollution, a problem caused in part by the widespread use of cow dung as cooking fuel. The country has the world’s highest death rate from chronic respiratory diseases, and more deaths from asthma than any other nation, according to the World Health Organization. Air pollution also contributes to both chronic and acute heart disease, the leading cause of death in India."

“One microlife represents 30 minutes of an average young adult s expected lifespan. The average person uses up about 48 microlives per day but lifestyle affects how fast one expends one s microlives. Settling in smoggy Beijing will use up roughly an additional 2-3 microlives per day, implying a reduction in life expectancy of almost three years. Living in Hong Kong or Santiago, Chile, will cost one additional microlife per day, whereas daily life in New Delhi, one of the world s most polluted cities, costs an estimated 4-5 microlives.”

 “Dung Obama’s three-day visit, PM2.5 levels in Delhi have averaged between 76 to 84 micrograms per cubic meter…Those levels translate roughly into an estimated loss of 2 hours a day in life expectancy, said David Spiegelhalter.. “That’s roughly 8 cigarettes a day”

“Beijing has more than 30 government monitors tracking its air quality, although the historical data is not widely available. Delhi has just four, in addition to one at the U.S. embassy”

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Are there Limits to the Burning of Carbon Fuels?

The geographical distribution of fossil fuels unused when limiting global warming to 2 °C (Abstract, Christophe McGlade & Paul Ekins, Nature, Jan. 7, 2015)

Also discussed here: The Limits to Fossil Fuel Use? (Wil Burns, Teaching Climate Law, Feb. 6, 2015)

 Today we review research into the implications of using fossil fuel reserves if the emissions from their use are to stay below the levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere that limit warming to 2 degrees C or less. The conclusions include the need to keep 82% of coal reserves in the ground, to cease production of bitumen in the Canadian oil sands by 2040 and to to keep 80% of unconventional natural gas reserves unburned by 2050 – even if carbon capture and sequestration is widely deployed, should it be found to be effective. The “Limits to Growth” on which the Club of Rome was founded now has application to the burning of fossil fuels.

   
Key Quotes:

“to have at least a 50 per cent chance of keeping warming below 2 °C throughout the twenty-first century, the cumulative carbon emissions between 2011 and 2050 need to be limited to around 1,100 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide (Gt CO₂).. However, the greenhouse gas emissions contained in present estimates of global fossil fuel reserves are around three times higher than this<sup>”  

“</sup>Our results suggest that, globally, a third of oil reserves, half of gas reserves and over 80 per cent of current coal reserves should remain unused from 2010 to 2050 in order to meet the target of 2 °C”

“There is a massive gap between both estimated fossil fuel resources (nearly 11,000 Gt CO2) and reserves (nearly 2,900) and the 1100 gigaton carbon dioxide budget that may be necessary to avoid passing critical temperature thresholds”

“ 82% of coal reserves will need to remain unburned to not exceed the world’s carbon budget by 2050”

“ In terms of unconventional oil, natural bitumen utilization in Canada must become “negligible” by 2020, and without CCS, all bitumen production must cease by 2040.”

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• Carbon dioxide emissions keep rising despite Obama's reign of regs
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• What is the Silver Bullet for Climate Change - Going Carbon Neutral or Degrowth?
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Global Estimates of Fine Particulate Matter from Space

The View from Afar - Satellite-Derived Estimates of Global PM2.5 (1 page pdf, Environmental Health Perspectives, Feb. 2, 2015)

Today we review research into recent global estimates of PM2.5 using space based sensors. Over the last decade, a trend toward worsening conditions in South and East Asia (with 51% more of the population exposed to pollution above WHO guidelines rose to 70%) and slightly improved conditions in the eastern USA and Canada (where the exposed population declined from 62% to 19%) was estimated from these satellite observations at a 10 km resolution. The authors expect in future that similar estimates may be made of NO2 concentrations at an improved resolution which may be more helpful in pin pointing urban pollution conditions and their sources.

 

 Key Quotes:

“More than 3 million people died prematurely in 2010 due to ambient exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5), according to estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study”

“We found notable trends of increasing PM2.5 in South and East Asia, where billions of people live. Meanwhile, parts of North America are getting cleaner,”

“In a sense, the satellites we use are little more than extremely well calibrated cameras that take pictures of the earth below. When aerosol particles are present, these pictures begin to look a little hazy,”

“The researchers used AOD data …to estimate ground-level PM2.5 at a spatial resolution of approximately 10 km × 10 km. Although some regions experienced a decrease in PM2.5 over the period 1998–2012, the global population-weighted average increased by an estimated 2.1% per year. Rising levels of air pollution in developing regions in South and East Asia largely drove the upward trend”

 “researchers estimated that the proportion of people in South and East Asia exposed to PM2.5 at levels exceeding the World Health Organization (WHO) interim target of 35 μg/m3 rose from 51% in 1998–2000 to 70% in 2010–2012. In contrast, the proportion of North Americans exposed to PM2.5 at levels above the WHO air quality guideline of 10 μg/ m3 fell from 62% in 1998–2000 to 19% in 2010-12”

 “Satellite-based estimates reported here will enable researchers to design and conduct large epidemiological studies in low- and middle-income countries that lack the extensive ground monitoring networks found in higher income countries,”

“In the future, we hope to infer global PM2.5 data at a higher spatial resolution and to investigate other air pollution compounds, such as nitrogen dioxide, using satellite data,”

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What is the Role for Business in Addressing Climate Change?

Climate Change’s Bottom Line (Burt Helm, New York Times, Jan. 31, 2015)

Also discussed here: RISKY BUSINESS: The Economic Risks of Climate Change in the United States (56 page pdf, Risky Business Project, Jun. 2014)

And here: Heat in the Heartland: Climate Change and Economic Risk in the Midwest (58 page pdf, Risky Business Project, Jan. 23, 2015)

And here: Stern Review: The Economics of Climate Change (662 page pdf, Nicholas Stern, chair of the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at the London School of Economics, Oct. 30, 2006)

Today we review the work of the “Risky Business Project” which was formed by a group of high level business and political leaders in the USA who wish to examine the probably outcomes of continued inaction on climate change by their country (and the world) while calling for the need to adapt to and minimize those changes. Unlike most environmental issues which have been addressed by going to government action from problem identification, research and policy based on scientific evidence, climate change has been portrayed as an attack on personal liberty through increased government control, camouflaged as denial of the science.

The Risky Business project aims to swing the consensus in the USA from a debate on the science to a consensus based on evidence of economic impacts focused on regional assessments and both on the short and long term. A report similar to the Stern report for the UK estimates $15.8B economic impacts for the USA by 2100. If the Project succeeds in showing how climate change hits the pocket book and business profits, maybe we’ll see that long delayed and necessary action by
  business, the public sector and government.  

Key Quotes:

“Our goal with the Risky Business Project is not to confront the doubters. Rather, it is to bring American business and government—doubters and believers alike—together to look squarely at the potential risks posed by climate change, and to consider whether it’s time to take out an insurance policy of our own.”

“When looking at climate change, it’s particularly important to consider the outlier events and not just the most likely scenarios. Indeed, the “outlier” 1-in-100 year event today will become the 1-in-10 year event as the Earth continues to warm. Put another way, over time the extremes will become the “new normal.”

“Our research combines peer-reviewed climate science projections through the year 2100 with empirically-derived estimates of the impact of projected changes in temperature, precipitation, sea levels, and storm activity on the U.S. economy”

 “I think it’s the existential threat of our day…Once you see it as having catastrophic impact, any economic argument follows that, because you’re not going to have an economy.”

 “Climate change would increase energy demand in Texas by between 3.4 and 9.2 percent by midcentury. Crop yields in Missouri and Illinois would face a 15 percent decline over the next 25 years. And in the Northeast, annual property damage from severe storms — from hurricanes to blizzards — would likely increase $11.1 billion, to a total of $15.8 billion by the end of the century.”

 “The whole point of all of this is that it can be mitigated…The enemies of what we’re trying to do are short-termism and a sense of hopelessness. But if we act soon we can avoid the worst outcomes and adapt.” “Congress tends not to act until the broad mainstream, including business, is aboard.”

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