Many of the changes needed to reduce urban air pollution and greenhouse gases will likely result from society’s adaptation to higher prices for carbon fuels as a consequence of the end of cheap oil with the speed of adaptation linked to the rate of price increase. Consumers of carbon fuels seem intent on accelerating their use so that this switch will likely come sooner rather than later. This report examines options to reduce oil consumption in the U.S. in the face of little reaction or resistance to current price increases.
Key Quotes:
“This study examines the impact of five scenarios
- an economy-wide cap and trade program
- a strong gasoline and diesel tax,
- increase the passenger car fuel efficiency standards between 2020 and 2030
- aggressive performance-based tax credits for alternative motor vehicles.
- the United States adopts each of these policies”
“Several results stand out.
- all the policy scenarios modeled fail to meet the Obama administration's goal of reducing total U.S. GHG emissions 14% below 2005 levels by 2020.
- the largest reductions in GHG emissions from transportation are obtained by increasing the cost of driving with fuel taxes.
- purchase tax credits are an expensive way to reduce oil consumption and GHG emissions from transportation.
- the macroeconomic impacts of reducing GHG emissions are small, even with our relatively aggressive policy scenarios”
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