World Bank Report on 4 Degree Warming of the World’s Climate

Turn Down the Heat: Why a 4°C Warmer World Must Be Avoided(106 page pdf, A Report for the World Bank by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Climate Analytics, November 2012)

Also discussed here

 (1.2 min You-Tube, Dr. Jim Yong Kim, President, World Bank Group)

And here: Stand Still for the Apocalypse(Chris Hedges,TruthDig, Nov. 26, 2012)

 Today we review a recent report from the World Bank, assessing the impacts of unrestrained greenhouse gas emissions leading to a 4 degree warmer planet. The impacts are many but tend to occur more often among developing countries near the equator rather than in mid-latitude developed countries who have been (and are) responsible for most of the emissions over the last century and these have accelerated in the last decade or two. The World Bank with a direct interest in promoting the economies of the developing world urges world leaders to begin to take serious measures to reduce emissions and as far as possible these impacts, even though the tipping point for an unstable climate was reached at 350 ppm (now close to 390 ppm). Key Quotes: “This report spells out what the world would be like if it warmed by 4 degrees Celsius, which is what scientists are nearly unanimously predicting by the end of the century, without serious policy changes…. Even with the current mitigation commitments and pledges fully implemented, there is roughly a 20 percent likelihood of exceeding 4°C by 2100.” “the distribution of impacts is likely to be inherently unequal and tilted against many of the world’s poorest regions, which have the least economic, institutional, scientific, and technical capacity to cope and adapt:

• Sea-level rise is likely to be 15 to 20 percent larger in the tropics than the global mean.
• Increases in tropical cyclone intensity are likely to be felt disproportionately in low-latitude regions.
• Increasing aridity and drought are likely to increase substantially in many developing country regions located in tropical and subtropical areas”

“Observations indicate a tenfold increase in the surface area of the planet experiencing extreme heat since the 1950s” “Of the impacts projected for 31 developing countries, only 10 cities account for two-thirds of the total exposure to extreme floods. Highly vulnerable cities are to be found in Mozambique, Madagascar, Mexico, Venezuela, India, Bangladesh, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Vietnam” “a global mean temperature increase of 4°C approaches the difference between temperatures today and those of the last ice age, when much of central Europe and the northern United States were covered with kilometers of ice and global mean temperatures were about 4.5°C to 7°C lower….And this magnitude of climate change—human induced—is occurring over a century, not millennia.” “We have already passed the tipping point of 350 ppm; above that level, life as we have known it cannot be sustained. The CO₂ concentration is higher now than at any time in the last 15 million years” “By the time the concentration reaches around 550 ppm (corresponding to a warming of about 2.4°C in the 2060s), it is likely that coral reefs in many areas would start to dissolve,” “A 4°C world is likely to be one in which communities, cities and countries would experience severe disruptions, damage, and dislocation, with many of these risks spread unequally. It is likely that the poor will suffer most and the global community could become more fractured, and unequal than today. The projected 4°C warming simply must not be allowed to occur—the heat must be turned down.”

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How Can Northern Cities Mitigate and Adapt to Climate Change?

Cities of the Future (Minister of the Environment and International Development, Government of Norway)

Also discussed here: Cities of the Future: From Norway with love (World Streets, Dec. 6. 2012)

And here: Cities of the Future 2008–2014 - Agreement between the state, KS and the municipalities (3 page pdf, Government of Norway)

Today we look at the cities of the future in northern Scandinavia where 13 of Norway’s largest cities have become engaged with their national government in a 6 year program, ending in 2014 “to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and make the cities better places to live”. The initiatives are broken down into four distinct categories (Land Use and Transport, Consumption and Waste, Energy and Buildings, and Climate Adaptation) and each of these has several sub components with specific examples of progress being made. This would be of special interest to other northern countries, such as Canada and Russia, where carbon fuels needed in winter for heating buildings and for transportation and where introducing new energy sources and infrastructure to reduce emissions are big challenges. Some, if not all, of the ideas may be borrowed and used elsewhere in the wake of the recent 2012 Conference of the Parties (COP) 18 at Doha, Qatar where the world and the world’s cities in particular look ahead to post-Kyoto years as to how to reduce global emissions by the 90% required in the short time available.

 Key Quotes:

“Cities of the Future is a collaboration between the Government and the 13 largest cities in Norway to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and make the cities better places to live… are densely built. This means we can walk and cycle instead of using cars, reducing pollution. Fewer cars and roads make more room for bike paths and parks. This makes the cities prettier and makes us healthier.”

Some key elements of the program:  

1. Land Use and Transport “Public Transport - Today 30% of all car journeys are less than 3 km. If the alternatives are good enough, we can easily replace the car on these journeys. Land Use - In the USA many cities have no functional centre, and the motorway for a shopping street. We want to plan the cities so we can walk and cycle to our destinations, and create a functional city centre.Footpaths and Cycle Paths - A city in which the inhabitants can walk or cycle to work every day has lower greenhouse gas emissions, better air, a better city centre and healthier inhabitants. Parking - If we limit the parking in the city centre, we also limit car traffic. Car Use - We can develop public transport and cycle paths to make people leave their car at home; but this will not work until there are restrictions on car use. Only then will queues be shorter and emissions lower.”

 2. Consumption and Waste “Waste Treatment and Recycling - Waste can be a source of valuable energy. This will reduce both waste and emissions. Waste Prevention - Support for composting, charges on disposable packaging, VAT-exemptions on repairs; using simple measures we can reduce the amount of waste and greenhouse gas emissions. Consumption Pattern - Everything we buy and use affects the climate. This gives us power to influence both the business sector and politicians to act more environmentally friendly. Procurement - The municipalities do not just save money when making green purchases. They also create a bigger market for green products, whether these are travels, paper or energy. Green Management - Paper free City Councils or buying emission quotas for air travels – green management in the municipalities can play an important role in the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions.”

 3. Energy and Buildings “Energy Use - The municipalities are responsible for 1/3 of energy consumption in Norwegian office buildings. This gives them a great opportunity to reduce the country’s energy consumption, and save money. Energy Sources - We get our energy from the wind, the sun and the sea – or from the waste the inhabitants produce. Energy Supply - With a compact city structure it is easier to connect more people to the distance heating plant, made for renewable energy sources. Information and Competence - We use energy nearly all the time. This means a lot can be gained from what appears to be simple measures. As long as we know what really works.”

4. Climate Change Adaptation “Precipitation - There will be more and heavier rain in the future. We need to strengthen the cities, both under and above ground to secure our welfare. This will make the cities better to live in. Flood - If we use too much tarmac and cover up too many streams in our cities, there is nowhere for the rainwater to go. However, this also means that damage can be prevented – as long as the city is built the right way. Landslides - More rain and snow increase the landslide hazard where people live. Landslide hazard mapping enables us to secure safe locations for new housing and infrastructure. Sea Level - Researchers predict that the sea level will have risen 40 cm by the end of this century. We have to build cities that can stand a higher sea level, and maybe we can enjoy it too. Wind - Strong winds give us more energy, but can also cause great damage if we do not develop our cities to prevent it.”

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Air Pollution in Mediterranean MegaCities

Megacities as hot spots of air pollution in the East Mediterranean(45 page pdf, Maria Kanakidou, Nikolaos Mihalopoulos, Tayfun Kindap, Ulas Im, Mihalis Vrekoussis, Evangelos Gerasopoulos, Eirini Dermitzaki, Alper Unal, Mustafa Koçak, Kostas Markakis, Dimitris Melas, Georgios Kouvarakis, Ahmed F. Youssef, Andreas Richter, Nikolaos Hatzianastassiou, Andreas Hilboll, Felix Ebojie, Folkard Wittrock, Christian von Savigny, John P. Burrows, Annette Ladstaetter-Weissenmayer, Hani Moubasher, Atmos. Environ., Nov. 30, 2010)

Also discussed here: Impacts of East Mediterranean megacity emissions on air quality( 21 page pdf, U. Im and M. Kanakidou, Atmos. Phy. July 23, 2012)

And here: Mediterranean capital pollution has far-reaching effects on air quality(Science for Environment Policy, Nov. 22, 2012)

Today we review research that examines the state of air pollution in several eastern Mediterranean magacities (Cairo, Istanbul, Athens - over 10M population) and the impact of some mitigation strategies on the cities as well as on the surrounding region. What is special about these urban areas is the combination of a large number of vehicles which often lack catalytic coverts or particulate filters and the year round impact of very warm temperatures which exacerbate the air pollution, especially ozone.  

Key Quotes:

“Large urban agglomerations with more than 10 million inhabitants are characterized as megacities and represent concentrated sources of anthropogenic emissions”

“The Eastern basin of the Mediterranean and the surrounding regions, include two megacities: the Greater Cairo area (GCA) (>15 million, Egypt) at the south edge of the basin and the Greater Istanbul Area (GIA) (>12 million inhabitants, Turkey) at the North East edge, as well as several large urban centers like to its northern part the Greater Athens area (GAA) (>4 million) in Greece”

“[Athens] The massive number of registered vehicles in circulation, growing at a rate of 7% yearly, is allegedly the major cause of air pollution related problems in the area, taking into account the large proportion of non-catalytic (0.8 million) or powered by old technology diesel engines vehicles (0.2 million)… observations from the Greek Ministry of Environment air pollution network in Athens since 1987, show a significant downward trend for almost all primary pollutants in all stations.”

 “[Cairo] GCA accommodates 50% of Egypt’s road transport fleet, 60% of which is over 10 years old, lacking modern emission cutting features like catalytic converters.. Open fire burnings is a common practice and a major contributor to air pollution in Egypt.. Year-long, mean levels often exceed the Egyptian and European Union air quality standards of 60 ppbv for daytime (8-h) O3 mixing ratios….the area is characterized by elevated levels of surface PM, with annual averages around 100 μg m-3 and above”

"[Istanbul] Between 1980 and 1990 the consumption ratio of coal to fuel-oil increased from 0.68 (in 1980) to 3.09 (in 1990).. The highest ozone levels were observed during sunny and warm summer days (maximum temperatures >25 °C) with southwesterly surface winds…GIA experiences high and variable levels of PM10 and PM2.5 particles (Table 3). Ozdemir et al. (2009) reported average PM10 levels of about 66 μg.m-3 observed at 10 Istanbul municipality stations during the last 10 years with values ranging from 47 μg.m-3 to 115 μg.m-3.”

"[eastern Mediterranean] Ground- based observations over the area show high concentrations of aerosols, in both PM10 and PM2.5 fractions .., with PM2.5/PM10 ratios around 0.5.., in agreement with the satellite observations”

 “Impacts of regional anthropogenic emissions on the domain-mean surface pollutant levels (up to 17%for summertime O3 and 52%for wintertime PM2.5) are much higher than those from GIA and GAA anthropogenic emissions together (_1% for O3 and _6% for PM2.5, respectively).”

“the impact of long range transport is significant in the region, even higher than the contributions of the local anthropogenic emissions and therefore, should be considered when quantifying and evaluating the impacts of emissions and mitigation”

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Paris, Car-Sharing and Electric Vehicles

IEA - International Energy Agency : Joy ride: IEA test-drives the Parisian electric car-sharing system (4-Traders, Nov. 20, 2012)

Also discussed here: EV City Casebook (75 page pdf, IEA)

And here: Brief. Joy ride: IEA test-drives the Paris Autollib’ (WorldStreets, Nov. 21, 2012)

And here: Autolib

The spectacular success of Paris’ bike sharing program, Velib, has been expanded to include electric car sharing, Autolib, which after one year has reached 42,000 subscribers. No wonder, since one can register and get behind the wheel of an Autolib car in less than 10 minutes with a much lower cost than from a normal car rental or even owning one’s own car. The electric car industry world-wide has accelerated in tandem with the Paris success with growth rates of 20% per year and a forecast of 20 million EVs on the road by 2020. Both trends are very good news for those concerned about health impacts and the large part that vehicle emissions play in affecting urban air pollution.  

Key Quotes:

 “Paris inaugurated Autolib in December 2011. The programme now offers 1 740 cars at any of 700 charging stations, each with space for at least three vehicles, with plans to expand soon to 3 000 cars and 1 050 stations”

 “Autolib has transformed Paris into the world's biggest experiment for vehicle electrification…It shows other cities how easily electric vehicles can avoid both local pollution and the hassle of parking in a densely populated city, all in the context of a paradigm shift from ownership to 'usership'”

 “In less than a year, more than 42 000 people have signed up for Autolib, whose auto fleet has nearly sextupled in size. Not all of the subscribers are Parisians: about 10 percent of users are tourists”

“Each car runs on a lithium metal polymer battery that weighs 300 kilograms and can power the car for 250 kilometres of city driving and 150 kilometres on highways at up to 130 kilometres per hour. A trip all the way across Paris uses only about 15 percent of the charge, and the 220-volt, 16-ampere batteries needs just 10 hours for full charging on average.. The average Autolib trip lasts 42 minutes, with the longest rentals running about three hours”

 “Anyone with an international driver's license and a photo ID can register online or use a video connection at one of the 60 subscription stations in the city to register and get behind the wheel within six minutes”

“The cumulative national targets for EV and PHEV sales announced by EVI member governments add up to almost six million by 2020, with assumed growth rates of 20 percent per year….this would almost reach six percent of total vehicle sales by 2020, and result in 20 million EVs on the road in that year”

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Toronto in 2040- Hot and Getting Hotter!

Toronto's Future Weather & Climate Driver Study: Outcomes Report(12 page pdf, Summary of the Senes Consultants Ltd Study by Toronto Environment Office, Oct. 30, 2012)

Also discussed here: Toronto failing to act on alarming climate changes: Environmentalists(Tess Kalinowski, Toronto Star, Nov. 11, 2012)

 Canada’s largest city is expected to have four times as many days with a humidex above 40C (104F) by 2040. So says the report being reviewed today and prepared for the City of Toronto Council in order to decide on what preparations are needed to adapt to the future with climate change continuing to proceed at full speed because of inaction by the world’s biggest emitters of greenhouse gases, namely, the USA, Brazil, Russia and China- and on an emissions per capita basis, Australia and Canada. Past studies have linked heat waves with air pollution and health and higher mortality rates. We look forward to see what the response from city council will be.  

Key Quotes:  

“The study predicts triple the number of above-30C days from about 22 on average annually to 66. It forecasts five times as many heat waves in the average summer and it warns that the days when the humidex hits 40C or higher will increase from nine a year to 39 on average”

• “Though the number of storms that occur in winter decrease, the number of storms that occur in summer remains the same – but the maximum amount of rainfall expected in any single day and in any single hour more than doubles.
• The number of days when the humidex exceeds 40oC is expected to increase fourfold
• The number of "heat waves".. is expected to increase from an average of 0.57 occurrences per year, as in the period 1971-2000, to 5 occurrences per year in the period 2040-2050”

  “Imagine a summer where for two months the temperature does not go down below 30C. If that were to happen tomorrow there would probably be a significant number of deaths. Our electricity infrastructure would fail. We would have massive blackouts and, who knows what else would happen to the other urban infrastructure? I’m not sure that the city and this administration is taking any of this stuff seriously,”

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