Pollution Free Cities

Tuesday, August 4, 2015

Getting Germany to Carbon Neutral by 2050 - a Scenario

Germany 2050 - a greenhouse gas-neutral Country (32 page pdf, the German Federal Environment Agency (UBA), Oct. 2013)

Also discussed here: Germany 2050 - A Greenhouse Gas-Neutral Country (Das Umweltbundesamt Für Mensch und Umwelt)

Today we review a report from the German Environmental Agency (UBA) which describes a scenario for to reduce carbon emissions for that country by 90% before 2050 without any significant change in consumption or an increase in biofuels and dependence on nuclear energy – notable conditions that many other national carbon reduction plans depend on. The prime approach is a switch to renewable energy accompanied by generation of hydrogen from renewable, as a fuel for transportation and industry. Large scale increases of photovoltaic energy generation from solar panels and of wind power from turbines along the sea coasts is envisaged.

Key Quotes:

“The long-term final energy demand in a greenhouse gas-neutral Germany has been estimated to be approx. 466 TWh/a for power generation, 305 TWh/a for heating fuel, 552 TWh/a for motor fuel and 282 TWh/a for renewable inputs in the chemical industry”

“It is not possible to meet all energy demands with electricity from renewable sources alone. Mainly in the transport sector, and especially in aviation and shipping, electricity cannot always be used directly.”

“With a share of approximately 50 % (199 TWh/a) in the final energy mix of the industry sector, renewably produced methane will be the main energy carrier in 2050, followed by renewable power with a share of approximately 45 %”

“ecological agriculture will have expanded to 20 % of the agricultural land.. no biomass will be grown in Germany for the sole purpose of energy use.. these recommendations champion a significant reduction of meat consumption and an increased use of vegetables.”

“No additional expansion of residential and traffic areas is anticipated for 2050. It is assumed that there will be a linear decline in land use from 80 hectares per day in 2007 to 30 hectares per day in 2020XIII, reaching the zero target by 2050”

Thursday, July 30, 2015

How is Air Pollution Linked to Diabetes?

Association between Ambient Air Pollution and Diabetes Mellitus in Europe and North America: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis (9 page pdf, Ikenna C. Eze, Lars G. Hemkens, Heiner C. Bucher, Barbara Hoffmann, Christian Schindler, Nino Künzli, Tamara Schikowski, and Nicole M. Probst-Hensch, Environmental Health Perspectives, May 1, 2015)

Today we review the results of a literature search for refereed studies or reports linking diabetes with air pollution. The search revealed over 680 reports and 13 studies that were conducted in Europe or North America- but not in developing countries. Analysis showed strong evidence linking inflammation from air pollution linked to the occurrence of Diabetes Type 2. Future studies need to take account of possible biases or unrelated causes of diabetes (such as obesity) as well as the need for this kind of research in developing countries where indoor air pollution is more likely to be a factor.

The blue circle is the global symbol for diabetes, introduced by the International Diabetes Federation with the aim of giving diabetes a common identity, supporting existing efforts to raise awareness of diabetes and placing the diabetes epidemic firmly in the public spotlight. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)[/caption]

Key Quotes:

“Persons with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) are at increased risk to develop micro- and macrovascular diseases and reduced lung function”

“13 studies on different types of diabetes. The identified epidemiological evidence is highly diverse: Levels, timing, and assessment of exposure varied, as did the outcome definitions, measures of association, and degree of confounder control.”

“There is strong evidence supporting the role of inflammation in T2DM …Chronic activation of inflammatory mechanisms can contribute to chronic insulin resistance and subsequent T2DM. Air pollution has been shown to be inflammatory “

“Future studies should report scales of exposure assessment (pollutant quantification and traffic exposure proxies) that allow direct comparisons with existing evidence”

“Adjusting for noise exposure is also essential because air pollution and noise can be correlated”

Tuesday, July 28, 2015

How is Europe Dealing with Air Pollution from Agriculture?

Clean Air from our Farms (4 page pdf, European Environmental Bureau Position Paper, Apr. 28, 2015)

Also discussed here : Infographic: How agricultural emissions affect our health (European Environmental Bureau, Apr. 28, 2015)

Today we review a note from the European Environmental Bureau which focuses on emissions and pollutants from agriculture which makes up 10% of all greenhouse gas emissions and 40% of the methane from the EU, and impacts both the air(acid rain), soil and human health. A National Emissions Ceilings Directive, issued in 2013, set new targets for ammonia, PM2.5 and methane among other pollutants, with a focus on livestock and manure management as well as croplands and the use of fertilizers and pesticides.

Key Quotes :

« Agricultural emissions in Europe contribute to several environmental problems such as plant damage, eutrophication, acidification, acid rains(that damage plants, lakes and biodiversity), greenhouse gas emissions and ozone formation. However, these emissions also lead to health issues, such as respiratory diseases and result in a shorter life expectancy for humans.”

“more than 90% of EU ammonia emissions (2011) come from Agriculture and around 40% of the total EU emissions from agriculture in 2012 are methane emissions. The agricultural sector was responsible for over 10% of EU total greenhouse gas emissions in 2012”

“The NECD revision [National Emissions Ceilings Directive, 2013] proposal sets new targets for the four initial pollutants, including ammonia (NH3). And it also for the first time includes limits for PM2.5 and methane (CH4)”

“the new measures should focus on livestock, soils (50% of EU total agricultural emissions) and manure management(one sixth of the EU total agricultural emissions). In addition, croplands, which occupy more than half the territory of the EU, emit large amounts of volatile pollutants due to fertilizers and pesticides’ use"

Thursday, July 23, 2015

How has Climate Change Affected the Frequency of Extreme Weather Events?

Anthropogenic contribution to global occurrence of heavy-precipitation and high-temperature extremes (Abstract, E. M. Fischer &R. Knutti, Nature Climate Change, Apr. 27, 2015)

Also discussed here: Human activity responsible for three out of four heat extremes, study finds (Roz Pidcock, The Carbon Brief, Apr. 27, 2015)

Today we review climate modeling research that examines the how the frequency of extreme weather events over the long term has and is being changed by the addition of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. Results indicate that in addition to an average global warming of 0.85 C over the last 100 years that the probability of the temperature at a location exceeding a given threshold has tripled so that a daily maximum above 35C, say, that once occurred once in 3 years now occurs every year. When the global temperature has increased by 2C which is the present aim for international policy makers under existing climate change protocols, the probability of a hot day will increase 5 times compared to present day frequencies. Likewise the additional moisture that warmer air can carry has increased and this leads to heavier and more frequent rain storms and floods, especially in the tropics. While the link between climate warming and more frequent extreme events has been known in general terms for a long time, this is the first time that a quantitative number has been put on that- which has major impacts on insurance as well as on policy dealing with climate change.

Key Quotes:

“75% of extreme hot days and 18% of days with heavy rainfall worldwide can be explained by the warming we've seen over the industrial period….Global temperature today is about 0.85C above what it was before the industrial revolution”

"Warmer temperatures overall create more hot days, and warmer air can hold and transport more moisture, which at some point must come down. These physical principles have been known for decades." "This result has strong implications for the discussion of different mitigation targets in climate negotiations, where differences between targets are small in terms of global temperature, but large in terms of the probability of extremes."

"The idea that in a 2C world almost half of heavy rainfall events would not have occurred were it not for climate change is a sobering thought for policymakers seeking to mitigate and adapt to climate change." "The global view is relevant for a large country, for example, to estimate the risks of extreme weather overall, no matter where it happens, or for reinsurance, agriculture and food security, where the aggregated damages matter."

"The damage depends on how much infrastructure is there, on building standards, protection measures, on warning systems, disaster response, etc., so the same weather event can lead to much more or much less damage depending on what or who is there, and how those people are prepared and respond to that threat."

"I think we need to go one stage further and model the contribution of anthropogenic climate change to the actual impacts of extreme weather, and then compile a global inventory of harm, not just of meteorological events, if we are to arrive at an objective assessment of loss and damage due to anthropogenic climate change."

Tuesday, July 21, 2015

Finding Post 2020 Targets for GHG Emission Reductions

Comparing Countries’ Emissions Targets - A Practical Guide (20 page pdf, Australian Government Climate Change Authority, March 2015)

Also discussed here: Comparing countries’ emissions targets (Australian Government Climate Change Authority, March 2015)

And here: Australia's future emissions reduction targets (43 page pdf, Australian Government Climate Change Authority, April 2015)

Today we review a guide from the Australian government that compares GHG reduction targets from other countries or regions with similar economies (such as the USA and the EU), using four criteria: Capacity, Adequacy, Responsibility and Effort and differences in base year. Australia, (like Canada) has one of the highest per capita emission rates in the world (at 25-27 tonsCO2e/year) as well as a strong economy, governance institutions and advanced technology. It’s unconditional emissions target implies a 32% reduction/capita from 2005 levels by 2025 which is higher relatively than the US or EU. Another significant factor is the cost to make reductions and the capacity of a country’s economy to bear that wither in absolute or relative terms. However, costs are difficult to estimate and may be influenced by actions of other countries as well as the technology used. The Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) for participating countries will be announced in advance of the Paris conference in December 2015.

Key Quotes:

“1990 is a reasonable point to start in most circumstances. Distant past emissions occurred when their impact was not well understood or foreseen. From 1990, however, there was widespread global recognition of the risks of climate change and the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The UNFCCC was agreed in 1992 and the Kyoto Protocol adopted in 1997. Both used 1990 as a baseline for targets.”

“Within the UNFCCC talks, post-2020 targets are known as Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs), and will be announced over the course of 2015. All countries are likely to compare their targets with others’, both in deciding what their targets should be, and in the course of negotiating the new global climate agreement”

“Targets are the most common type of emissions reduction goal, and typically state an intended level of emissions (or emissions intensity) in a certain year. Emission budgets, on the other hand, specify a total limit on emissions over a period of time…Because climate change is caused by cumulative global emissions over very long periods of time, budgets can ensure more consistency of action with climate science over time, and demonstrate the trade-offs between early and later action.”

“This guide first discusses how to ensure comparisons are fair, explaining the four central criteria (Capacity, Adequacy, Responsibility and Effort) and how to compare like with like.”

“Australia’s unconditional emissions target of 5 per cent reduction by 2020 from 2000 levels implies a 32 per cent reduction in emissions per person from 2005 levels”

“A country’s costs may be strongly influenced by action of other countries. Costs are often overestimated due to tendency to underestimate the rate of changes in technology and broader innovation.”

Thursday, July 16, 2015

How Will Norway Deal with Less Fuel Tax Revenue while Reducing Carbon Emissions?

Norway reviewing future of fuel tax (Road Pricing, Apr. 24, 2015)

Today we review a short note on the status of fuel taxes and road tolls in Norway which like Canada is blessed with both considerable hydroelectric power and oil and natural gas resources. Norway has a much greater network of roads with tolls as well as many more electric cars than Canada. With the drop in oil prices and, as a result, reduced revenue from fixed fuel taxes, both countries have to decide how to manage the revenue side from fuel taxes and road pricing, as well as the movement toward lower carbon emissions which has been boosted by various incentives for electric cars (which tends to favour higher income owners) which are not available for heavy vehicles and trucks. The resulting decision may favour higher tolls. This is one option not available to oil producing countries, such as the USA and Canada, where tolling is much less seen.

Key Quotes:

"Incentives for electric cars:

Toll free use of roads;
Zero charges for public car parks;
Access to bus lanes;
Free use of car ferries;
-Free use of public vehicle charge points.”

“20% of all vehicles sold last year were electric, with Norway alone representing one third of all such vehicles sold in Europe “

“Norway has many toll roads, not just the relatively well known Oslo toll ring (which effectively operates as a congestion charging cordon), but on major highways across the country, with 40 currently listed”

“Fuel tax is US$3.87 per gallon (US$1.02 per litre) including a tax on CO2.”

“its neighbour Sweden has an influence, as having taxation [on fuel] significantly lower than Sweden will encourage some informal and illegal trade across the border”